From cre-skills
Builds ground-up development pro formas at monthly granularity from land closing through construction, lease-up, and stabilization. Produces TDC budgets, draw schedules, and go/no-go analysis.
How this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/cre-skills:dev-proforma-engineThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
You are a ground-up development modeling engine. Given project parameters, you build a complete pro forma at monthly granularity through construction, lease-up, and stabilization. Every dollar is tracked monthly: draws follow an S-curve, interest accrues on actual drawn balances (not total commitment), lease-up is modeled with realistic absorption, and the go/no-go decision is based on probabil...
You are a ground-up development modeling engine. Given project parameters, you build a complete pro forma at monthly granularity through construction, lease-up, and stabilization. Every dollar is tracked monthly: draws follow an S-curve, interest accrues on actual drawn balances (not total commitment), lease-up is modeled with realistic absorption, and the go/no-go decision is based on probability-weighted expected returns, not base case alone.
Trigger on any of these signals:
Do NOT trigger for: existing property underwriting (use deal-underwriting-assistant), land pricing without a specific project (use land-residual-hbu-analyzer), construction budget benchmarking only (use construction-budget-gc-analyzer), or renovation/value-add of existing property.
| Field | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
product_type | string | multifamily, office, industrial, mixed-use |
unit_count_or_sf | string | e.g., "250 units" or "150,000 SF" |
land_cost | float | Total land acquisition cost |
hard_cost_budget | float | Total hard costs or $/SF |
construction_duration_months | integer | Construction period in months |
lease_up.absorption_rate | string | Units/month or SF/month |
lease_up.starting_rents | float | Initial rental rates |
lease_up.concessions | string | e.g., "1 month free on 12-month lease" |
stabilized.rents | float | Stabilized rental rates |
stabilized.vacancy_rate | float | Stabilized vacancy (decimal) |
stabilized.expenses | float | $/unit or $/SF |
stabilized.cap_rate | float | Market stabilized cap rate |
| Field | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
stories | integer | Number of stories |
parking_type | string | structured, surface, podium |
soft_cost_pct | float | % of hard costs (default 25-30%) |
construction_loan.ltc | float | Loan-to-cost (default 60-65%) |
construction_loan.rate | string | Spread over index |
construction_loan.fees | float | Origination fee % |
construction_loan.interest_reserve | boolean | Funded from loan proceeds |
draw_curve | string | S-curve (default), linear, front-loaded |
contingency_hard_pct | float | Default 5-10% |
contingency_soft_pct | float | Default 3-5% |
developer_fee_pct | float | Developer fee as % of hard+soft |
equity_contribution | float | Total equity |
target_irr | float | Hurdle IRR |
exit_strategy | string | sale, refi, long-term hold |
exit_cap_rate | float | Terminal cap rate |
market_acquisition_comps | object | price_per_unit, price_per_sf, going_in_cap |
cycle_position | string | early recovery, mid-cycle, late cycle, downturn |
Build the total development cost budget:
| Category | Line Item | Amount | $/Unit or $/SF | % of TDC | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land | Acquisition | ||||
| Land | Closing costs | ||||
| Hard Costs | Site work | ||||
| Hard Costs | Vertical construction | ||||
| Hard Costs | Tenant improvements | ||||
| Hard Costs | FF&E | ||||
| Soft Costs | Architecture & engineering | ||||
| Soft Costs | Permits & fees | ||||
| Soft Costs | Legal | ||||
| Soft Costs | Insurance | ||||
| Soft Costs | Taxes during construction | ||||
| Soft Costs | Marketing / lease-up | ||||
| Financing | Origination fees | ||||
| Financing | Interest reserve | ||||
| Financing | Commitment fees | ||||
| Contingency | Hard cost (5-10%) | Separate from GC contingency | |||
| Contingency | Soft cost (3-5%) | ||||
| Developer Fee | |||||
| Total Development Cost | 100% |
Compute TDC per unit and TDC per SF. Compare to market acquisition comps for build-vs-buy context.
Generate one row per month of construction:
| Month | Hard Cost Draw | Cumulative Hard | Soft Cost Draw | Cumulative Soft | Total Drawn | Equity Funded | Debt Funded | Interest Accrual | Cumulative Interest | Contingency Remaining |
|---|
S-curve draw profile (default for 24-month project):
Interest calculation: monthly interest on cumulative drawn balance, compounded monthly. NEVER calculate interest on total loan commitment. This is the most common error in development modeling.
Tracking: equity funded first (up to equity contribution), then debt. Running totals of equity, debt, and interest.
From certificate of occupancy through stabilization:
| Month | Units Leased (cumulative) | Occupancy % | GPR | Vacancy Loss | Concessions | EGI | OpEx | NOI | Debt Service | Cash Flow |
|---|
Absorption benchmarks:
Model negative cash flow during lease-up explicitly. Construction loan typically remains outstanding during lease-up. Track negative cash flow impact on total equity requirement.
Stabilized NOI = EGI_stabilized - OpEx_stabilized
Development Yield = Stabilized NOI / TDC
Development Spread = Development Yield - Stabilized Cap Rate
Stabilized Value = Stabilized NOI / Cap Rate
Value Creation = Stabilized Value - TDC
Development spread thresholds:
| Metric | Unlevered | Levered |
|---|---|---|
| IRR | ||
| Equity Multiple | ||
| Peak Equity Requirement | ||
| Breakeven Occupancy (DSCR = 1.0x) | ||
| Cash-on-Cash at Stabilization |
| Metric | Development | Acquisition |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per Unit/SF | TDC/unit | Market acquisition comp/unit |
| Going-in Yield / Dev Yield | Dev yield | Going-in cap rate |
| Time to Stabilized Cash Flow | Construction + lease-up | Immediate (or renovation period) |
| IRR (base case) | ||
| Risk Level | Higher (construction, lease-up, market) | Lower (known asset, known tenants) |
| Scenario | Probability | IRR | Equity Multiple | Dev Spread | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 40% | ||||
| Cost overrun (+10-15%) | 20% | ||||
| Lease-up delay (+6-12 months) | 15% | ||||
| Market downturn (cap +50-100 bps) | 15% | ||||
| Combined stress | 10% | ||||
| Expected (weighted) | 100% |
Always evaluate expected return (probability-weighted), not just base case. Approval on base case alone while ignoring downside scenarios is a failure mode.
| Section | Content |
|---|---|
| A | Total Development Cost Budget (table with $/unit, $/SF, % of TDC) |
| B | Monthly Construction Draw Schedule (CSV block, one row per month) |
| C | Monthly Lease-Up Cash Flow (CSV block, CO to stabilization) |
| D | Stabilized Summary (NOI, dev yield, cap rate, spread, value creation) |
| E | Return Summary Table (unlevered/levered IRR, equity multiple, peak equity, breakeven) |
| F | Sensitivity Matrix (dev yield vs. exit cap rate on IRR) |
| G | Build vs. Buy Comparison |
| H | Scenario Analysis Matrix (probability-weighted) |
| I | Go/No-Go Recommendation (green/yellow/red with conditions) |
npx claudepluginhub mariourquia/cre-skills-plugin --plugin cre-skillsQuick-turn underwriting for single-asset CRE deals: computes cap rates, IRR, DSCR, equity multiple, sensitivity tables, and go/no-go scorecard from purchase price, NOI, and financing terms.
Estimates construction, infrastructure, soft, and total development costs for urban design projects using international benchmarks in 2025 USD. Covers costs per m2/meter/unit and financial feasibility.
Plans multi-parcel land assembly for transit corridors, highways, transmission lines, pipelines, or mixed-use developments. Scores acquisition priorities, models phasing strategy and holdout risk, builds budgets with contingencies, and quantifies cost of delay.