cost-estimation

Cost Estimation Skill

This skill provides a systematic framework for estimating the capital costs of urban design projects at the masterplan and district scales. It draws on international construction cost benchmarks (Turner & Townsend, Rider Levett Bucknall, AECOM, Arcadis), infrastructure costing guides (CIRIA, ASCE), and development appraisal methodology (RICS Red Book, ULI).

All costs are provided in USD (2025 baseline) with regional adjustment factors. The goal is to enable early-stage cost estimation accurate to +/- 25-30% (AACE Class 4 estimate) sufficient for masterplan feasibility and design option comparison.

---

1. Building Construction Cost

1.1 Cost per m2 GFA by Building Type

Costs include structure, envelope, MEP, finishes, and contractor overhead and profit. Exclude land, professional fees, and site infrastructure (those are separate categories below).

Residential

Type	Low	Medium	High	Premium
Detached house	$800	$1,200	$1,800	$2,500+
Townhouse / row house	$750	$1,100	$1,600	$2,200+
Low-rise apartment (1-3 floors)	$900	$1,300	$1,800	$2,400+
Mid-rise apartment (4-10 floors)	$1,100	$1,600	$2,200	$3,000+
High-rise apartment (11-25 floors)	$1,400	$2,000	$2,800	$4,000+
Super-tall apartment (25+ floors)	$2,000	$2,800	$4,000	$6,000+
Affordable housing (basic spec)	$600	$900	$1,200	N/A
Student housing	$900	$1,300	$1,700	$2,200
Senior housing / care home	$1,200	$1,800	$2,500	$3,500

Commercial

Type	Low	Medium	High	Premium
Office (standard)	$1,200	$1,800	$2,500	$3,500+
Office (Grade A / LEED Platinum)	$1,800	$2,500	$3,500	$5,000+
Retail (shell and core)	$700	$1,000	$1,400	$2,000
Retail (fitted out)	$1,000	$1,500	$2,200	$3,500+
Hotel (3-star)	$1,400	$2,000	$2,800	N/A
Hotel (5-star)	$2,500	$3,500	$5,000	$8,000+
Supermarket	$800	$1,100	$1,500	$2,000
Food hall / market	$900	$1,400	$2,000	$3,000

Civic / Institutional

Type	Low	Medium	High	Premium
Primary school	$1,200	$1,800	$2,500	$3,500
Secondary school	$1,400	$2,000	$2,800	$4,000
University building	$1,800	$2,500	$3,500	$5,000
Healthcare clinic	$1,500	$2,200	$3,200	$4,500
Hospital	$2,500	$3,500	$5,000	$7,500
Community center	$1,000	$1,500	$2,200	$3,000
Library	$1,400	$2,000	$3,000	$4,500
Place of worship	$800	$1,400	$2,500	$5,000+
Fire / police station	$1,200	$1,800	$2,500	N/A
Sports hall / indoor courts	$1,000	$1,500	$2,200	$3,200

Parking

Type	Cost per Space	Cost per m2
Surface lot	$3,000-5,000	$100-170
Structured above-grade	$20,000-35,000	$570-1,000
Underground (1 level)	$35,000-50,000	$875-1,250
Underground (2+ levels)	$45,000-65,000	$1,125-1,625
Automated / mechanical	$30,000-60,000	$1,500-3,000

1.2 Regional Cost Adjustment Factors

Apply these multipliers to the base costs above:

Region	Factor	Notes
US Northeast / California	1.20-1.40	High labor costs
US Southeast / Midwest	0.85-1.00	Base region
US Southwest	0.90-1.05
Western Europe (UK, France, Germany)	1.10-1.35
Northern Europe (Scandinavia)	1.30-1.60	High labor, weather
Southern Europe (Spain, Italy, Greece)	0.80-1.00
Eastern Europe	0.50-0.75
GCC / Gulf States	0.90-1.20	Imported materials and labor
India	0.25-0.45
China (Tier 1 cities)	0.40-0.65
Southeast Asia	0.30-0.55
Australia / New Zealand	1.15-1.40
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.40-0.70	Supply chain premium
Latin America	0.35-0.60
Japan / South Korea	1.00-1.30

1.3 Height Premium

Building cost increases with height due to structural requirements, vertical transportation, and construction complexity:

Floors	Premium over Low-Rise Base
1-3	1.00x (base)
4-6	1.05-1.10x
7-10	1.10-1.20x
11-15	1.15-1.30x
16-25	1.25-1.45x
26-40	1.40-1.70x
41-60	1.60-2.00x
60+	2.00-2.50x+

1.4 Sustainability Premium

Certification Level	Additional Cost
Basic compliance (code minimum)	0% (baseline)
LEED Silver / BREEAM Good	1-3%
LEED Gold / BREEAM Very Good	2-5%
LEED Platinum / BREEAM Outstanding	5-10%
Net Zero Carbon	8-15%
Net Zero Energy	10-20%
Passive House standard	5-15%
Mass timber structure (CLT)	0-8% (varies; sometimes cost-neutral)

---

2. Infrastructure Costs

2.1 Road and Street Construction

Element	Unit	Low	Medium	High
Local street (full build)	per linear meter	$800	$1,500	$2,500
Collector street (full build)	per linear meter	$1,500	$2,800	$4,500
Arterial road (full build)	per linear meter	$3,000	$5,500	$9,000
Sidewalk (concrete, 2m wide)	per linear meter	$100	$180	$300
Protected cycle track (one-way)	per linear meter	$150	$300	$500
Protected cycle track (two-way)	per linear meter	$200	$400	$700
Asphalt resurfacing	per m2	$15	$30	$50
Concrete paving (vehicular)	per m2	$40	$70	$120
Unit paving (pedestrian areas)	per m2	$60	$120	$250
Traffic signal (full intersection)	each	$80,000	$200,000	$400,000
Roundabout (single lane)	each	$200,000	$500,000	$1,000,000
Pedestrian bridge	per linear meter	$5,000	$15,000	$40,000
Vehicular bridge	per m2 deck	$2,000	$4,000	$8,000

2.2 Utilities

Utility	Unit	Low	Medium	High
Water main (150-300mm)	per linear meter	$150	$300	$500
Water main (300-600mm)	per linear meter	$300	$600	$1,000
Sewer (gravity, 200-400mm)	per linear meter	$200	$400	$700
Sewer (gravity, 400-800mm)	per linear meter	$400	$800	$1,400
Storm drain (300-600mm)	per linear meter	$150	$350	$600
Storm drain (600-1200mm)	per linear meter	$400	$800	$1,500
Pump station (water)	each	$200,000	$500,000	$1,500,000
Pump station (sewer)	each	$300,000	$800,000	$2,000,000
Water treatment (per ML/day)	each	$500,000	$1,500,000	$4,000,000
Wastewater treatment (per ML/day)	each	$800,000	$2,500,000	$6,000,000
Power distribution (underground HV)	per linear meter	$300	$600	$1,200
Power distribution (underground LV)	per linear meter	$100	$250	$500
Substation (11/33kV)	each	$200,000	$500,000	$1,200,000
Telecom duct (multi-way)	per linear meter	$50	$120	$250
District cooling pipe	per linear meter	$400	$800	$1,500
District heating pipe	per linear meter	$300	$600	$1,200
Gas main (medium pressure)	per linear meter	$100	$250	$450

2.3 Transit Infrastructure

Element	Unit	Low	Medium	High
BRT (full standard, at-grade)	per km	$5M	$15M	$30M
LRT (at-grade)	per km	$20M	$40M	$80M
LRT (elevated)	per km	$40M	$70M	$120M
Metro (underground)	per km	$100M	$200M	$400M
Metro station (underground)	each	$50M	$150M	$400M
BRT station (median)	each	$200K	$500K	$1.5M
LRT stop (at-grade)	each	$1M	$3M	$8M
Bus interchange / terminal	each	$5M	$15M	$40M
Park-and-ride (per space)	per space	$5,000	$15,000	$35,000

2.4 Green Infrastructure

Element	Unit	Low	Medium	High
Neighborhood park (basic)	per m2	$40	$80	$150
District park (developed)	per m2	$60	$120	$250
Urban plaza (hard landscape)	per m2	$150	$350	$700
Waterfront promenade	per linear meter	$3,000	$8,000	$20,000
Playground (equipped)	each	$50,000	$200,000	$500,000
Sports field (natural turf)	each	$200,000	$500,000	$1,000,000
Sports field (synthetic turf)	each	$400,000	$800,000	$1,500,000
Street tree (installed, large)	each	$500	$1,500	$4,000
Bioswale / rain garden	per linear meter	$100	$250	$500
Green roof (extensive)	per m2	$80	$150	$250
Green roof (intensive)	per m2	$200	$400	$700
Stormwater detention basin	per m3 storage	$50	$150	$400
Underground detention tank	per m3 storage	$300	$700	$1,500

2.5 All-In Infrastructure Cost per Dwelling Equivalent

For quick estimates when detailed design is not yet available:

Context	Infrastructure Cost per Dwelling
Greenfield (all new)	$30,000-80,000
Brownfield (partial reuse)	$15,000-50,000
Urban infill (existing network)	$8,000-25,000
High-density urban (shared)	$5,000-15,000

These include roads, utilities, open space, and community infrastructure apportioned per dwelling equivalent.

---

3. Soft Costs

3.1 Professional Fees

Service	% of Construction Cost
Architecture	4-8%
Structural engineering	1-3%
MEP engineering	2-4%
Civil / infrastructure engineering	3-6%
Landscape architecture	1-3%
Urban design / masterplan	1-3%
Transport planning	0.5-1.5%
Environmental consultant	0.5-2%
Quantity surveyor / cost consultant	1-2%
Project management	3-5%
Planning / regulatory consultant	0.5-1.5%
Sustainability / LEED consultant	0.5-1.5%

Total professional fees: typically 15-25% of construction cost for a complex urban project. Simpler projects: 12-18%.

3.2 Other Soft Costs

Item	% of Total Development Cost
Legal fees	1-3%
Insurance (builder's risk)	0.5-1.5%
Permitting and approvals	0.5-2%
Survey and geotechnical	0.3-1%
Environmental assessment (EIA)	0.5-2%
Marketing and sales	2-5% (residential), 1-3% (commercial)
Finance costs (construction loan)	3-8% (depends on duration and rates)
Developer overhead	3-5%
Contingency	5-15% (depends on project stage)

3.3 Contingency by Project Stage

Stage	Recommended Contingency
Concept / masterplan (AACE Class 5)	20-30%
Schematic design (AACE Class 4)	15-25%
Design development (AACE Class 3)	10-15%
Construction documents (AACE Class 2)	5-10%
Tender / pre-construction (AACE Class 1)	3-5%

---

4. Total Development Cost Assembly

4.1 Cost Stack Structure

1. Land Acquisition
   + Stamp duty / transfer taxes (1-5%)
   + Legal and due diligence (0.5-1%)

2. Site Preparation
   + Demolition (if brownfield)
   + Remediation (if contaminated)
   + Earthworks and grading
   + Temporary works and site setup (2-5% of construction)

3. Infrastructure
   + Roads and streets
   + Utilities (water, sewer, storm, power, telecom)
   + Open space and landscaping
   + Transit infrastructure (if applicable)

4. Building Construction
   + Substructure (foundations)
   + Superstructure (frame, envelope)
   + MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing)
   + Finishes and fit-out

5. Soft Costs
   + Professional fees (15-25% of construction)
   + Permitting and approvals
   + Marketing and sales
   + Legal and insurance

6. Finance Costs
   + Construction loan interest
   + Arrangement fees

7. Developer Margin
   + Profit target: 15-20% on cost (residential)
   + Profit target: 15-25% on cost (commercial/speculative)

8. Contingency
   + As per project stage (Section 3.3)

4.2 Quick Cost Assembly (Rule of Thumb)

For rapid order-of-magnitude estimates:

Total Development Cost (excl. land) =
  Building Construction Cost
  x 1.15-1.25 (infrastructure and external works, 15-25% of building cost)
  x 1.18-1.25 (professional fees and soft costs)
  x 1.05-1.10 (finance costs)
  x 1.10-1.25 (contingency)

Simplified: Building Cost x 1.55-2.00 = Total Development Cost (excl. land)

Example:
  50,000 m2 mixed-use at $2,000/m2 building cost = $100M building
  Total development cost = $100M x 1.75 = $175M (excl. land)

---

5. Revenue and Feasibility

5.1 Revenue Estimation

Product	Revenue Basis	Typical Range
Residential (sale)	$/m2 NIA	$2,000-15,000+
Residential (rent)	$/m2/month	$15-80+
Office (rent)	$/m2/year	$150-800+
Retail (rent)	$/m2/year	$200-2,000+
Hotel (revenue)	$/room/night (ADR)	$80-500+
Parking (sale)	$/space	$20,000-80,000
Parking (rent)	$/space/month	$100-600

5.2 Feasibility Quick Tests

Residual Land Value Test:

Residual Land Value = Total Revenue - Total Development Cost (excl. land)
                    - Developer Profit

If Residual Land Value > Land Acquisition Cost → Feasible
If Residual Land Value < Land Acquisition Cost → Not feasible at this program

Profit on Cost:

Profit on Cost = (Total Revenue - Total Cost including land) / Total Cost
Target: > 15% for residential, > 20% for commercial

Yield on Cost (income-producing):

Yield on Cost = Net Operating Income (Year 1) / Total Development Cost
Target: 1-2% above prevailing cap rate

Infrastructure Ratio Check:

Infrastructure Cost / Total Development Cost

Healthy: < 15%
Watchpoint: 15-25%
Red flag: > 25% (infrastructure-heavy; consider increasing density)

5.3 Value Engineering Strategies

When costs exceed feasibility, consider these strategies in order of impact:

Strategy	Typical Saving	Impact on Quality
Increase density (more units sharing infrastructure)	10-30% per unit	Positive if well-designed
Simplify building form (reduce facade complexity)	5-15%	Moderate
Standardize floor plates and unit types	5-10%	Low
Reduce underground parking (shift to above-grade)	$15,000-30,000 per space	Low-moderate
Phase infrastructure (build only what's needed now)	10-20% of infrastructure	Low
Reduce specification level (finishes, lobby, amenities)	5-15%	Moderate
Switch structural system (steel to concrete or timber)	3-10%	Low
Prefabricate / modular construction	5-20%	Low
Reduce building height (avoid high-rise premium)	5-25%	Context-dependent
Shared parking strategy (reduce total spaces)	10-25% of parking cost	Low

---

6. Phased Development Costing

6.1 Phasing Cost Principles

1. Front-loading infrastructure hurts feasibility - Each phase must generate enough revenue to fund its own infrastructure plus contribute to shared trunk infrastructure
2. Catalyst investment - Budget 5-10% of total project cost for early catalyst projects (park, plaza, community facility) that establish place value
3. Temporary works - Budget $500-2,000/m2 for temporary activation of undeveloped land (markets, events, pop-up retail)
4. Escalation - Apply 3-5% annual escalation to construction costs for future phases
5. Revenue growth - As place-making takes effect, later phases typically achieve 10-30% higher sales/rental values

6.2 Infrastructure Triggers

Plan infrastructure investment to match development triggers:

Trigger	Infrastructure Required	Typical Cost
First 200 dwellings	Primary access road, water/sewer connection, temporary open space	$5-15M
500 dwellings	Primary school site, neighborhood park, local retail	$10-25M
1,000 dwellings	Secondary road network, expanded utilities, community center	$15-40M
2,000 dwellings	Health center, secondary school, district park	$20-50M
5,000 dwellings	Full road network, transit stop, sports facilities	$40-100M
10,000+ dwellings	Transit line extension, regional infrastructure	$100M+

---

7. Cost Benchmarks from Exemplar Projects

Project	Scale	Total Cost	Cost/m2 GFA	Cost/Dwelling
Vauban, Freiburg	38 ha, 5,500 units	~$850M	~$1,800	~$155,000
HafenCity, Hamburg	157 ha, 7,000 units	~$14B	~$3,500	~$350,000
King's Cross, London	27 ha, 2,000 units	~$4B	~$3,200	~$280,000
Hammarby Sjostad	200 ha, 11,000 units	~$3.5B	~$2,200	~$180,000
Masdar City (Phase 1)	640 ha (planned)	~$22B	~$4,500	N/A
Eko Atlantic, Lagos	10 km2 (planned)	~$6B	~$1,200	N/A
Hudson Yards, NYC	11 ha (above platform)	~$25B	~$6,000	~$2,500,000
Nordhavn, Copenhagen	200 ha (planned)	~$5B	~$2,800	~$220,000

Note: Costs are approximate and include varying scopes. Use for order-of-magnitude comparison only. Adjust for year of construction and local market conditions.

---

8. Cost Estimation Calculator

For precise cost estimation, use the Python calculator:

python scripts/cost_estimator.py \
  --residential-gfa 50000 --residential-spec medium \
  --office-gfa 15000 --office-spec high \
  --retail-gfa 5000 --retail-spec medium \
  --parking-spaces 400 --parking-type structured \
  --infrastructure-roads 2000 --infrastructure-utilities 3000 \
  --region gulf --contingency 0.20

See the urban-calculator skill for full calculator usage and the scripts/cost_estimator.py file for all parameters.

---

Cross-Skill Integration

This skill integrates with:

• masterplan-design: Cost estimation is essential for Phase 8 (Implementation) and phasing strategy
• mixed-use-programming: Program and GFA outputs feed directly into cost estimation
• block-and-density: Building typology and height determine construction cost category
• mobility-and-transport: Transit and road infrastructure costs are major cost drivers
• sustainability-scoring: Green certification targets add sustainability premiums
• urban-calculator: Density and FAR outputs determine building quantum for costing
• zoning-and-codes: Regulatory requirements (parking, setbacks, height) affect buildable area and cost

---

Deep Knowledge References

For complete construction cost tables by building type with detailed breakdowns (substructure, superstructure, MEP, finishes):

• See references/construction-costs.md

For infrastructure cost estimation methodology including capacity sizing, network layout optimization, and phased delivery:

• See references/infrastructure-costs.md

For financial feasibility analysis including cash flow modeling, sensitivity analysis, and funding mechanisms:

• See references/feasibility-analysis.md