s4h-systems-feedback-mapping

Systems Feedback Mapping

Most system failures come from unrecognized feedback loops — especially delayed balancing loops that cause overshoot and collapse. Reinforcing loops amplify change in one direction; balancing loops push back toward a target. Until both types are visible and named, diagnosis and intervention are guesswork.

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Your Process

Step 1: Define System Boundary State what is inside the system and what is outside it. Name the time horizon and the key behavior to explain (growth, oscillation, collapse, stagnation).

Framing check: Confirm the specific system and the feedback relationship in focus before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual system being analyzed, its time horizon, and the behavior you're mapping — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the system, time horizon, and behavior to explain]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding

Step 2: List Key Variables Identify 5–10 variables that change over time and drive the behavior in question. These are stocks (levels that accumulate) or flows (rates of change). Be specific — "customer trust" not "sentiment".

Before narrowing: Show the complete generated set of candidate variables to the user first. Use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I've identified [N] candidate variables. Before I narrow to the 5–10 most relevant for mapping feedback loops, are there any you'd flag as especially important, or any I've missed?"
• Header: "Prioritise"
• Options:
  • Proceed with your selection — the set looks right
  • Flag one — user will name a specific variable to include
  • Add a missing one — user will describe it

Step 3: Map Causal Links For each variable pair where a relationship exists: does A increasing cause B to increase (same direction, +) or decrease (opposite direction, −)? Mark the polarity of each link.

Step 4: Trace Loops Follow causal chains until they close back on themselves. Count the number of negative (−) links in the loop. Even number of negatives = reinforcing loop (R). Odd number = balancing loop (B). Name each loop.

Step 5: Mark Delays Identify where cause is separated from effect in time. Delays are the primary source of oscillation and overshoot — a balancing loop with a long delay will overcorrect.

Step 6: Identify the Dominant Loop Which loop is currently driving system behavior? The dominant loop changes as conditions change — map the transition conditions.

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Human Check-in

Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:

• Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
• Header: "Scope"
• Options:
  • Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
  • Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
  • Reinforcing loops only — What's accelerating in this system, skip balancing loops
  • Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing

Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.

Output Format

System Boundary: [scope + time horizon + behavior to explain]

Feedback Loop Table

Loop Name	Type (R/B)	Variables in Loop	Delay?	Current Strength

Dominant Loop: [name] — [what behavior it produces]

Delay Risks: [which delays are creating overshoot or oscillation]

What This Predicts: [expected system behavior if current structure holds]

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Notes

Loops are not permanent — the dominant loop shifts as variables hit limits or thresholds. Map the transition condition that would shift dominance from one loop to another.

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What's Next

After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:

• Question: "Feedback loops mapped. What's next?"
• Header: "Next"
• Options:
  • /s4h-systems-leverage-analysis — Find leverage points within the feedback loops
  • /s4h-temporal-cycle-detection — Detect cycles the feedback loops create
  • /s4h-strategy-positioning — Position to exploit or break the key feedback loops
  • Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far