s4h-social-coalition-mapping

Coalition Mapping

Proposals fail not because they are wrong, but because they lack the support needed to move. Coalition mapping makes the social landscape explicit: who is already on board, who is opposed, who is persuadable, and what sequence of engagement gives the best chance of success.

---

Your Process

Step 1: Define the Required Support What does success require? Formal approval from whom? Informal buy-in from whom? What is the minimum needed for the proposal to move?

Framing check: Confirm the specific proposal and its success conditions before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual proposal being mapped, who owns it, and what "winning" looks like — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the proposal, its goal, and the decision-making context]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding

Step 2: List All Relevant Stakeholders Everyone who could affect whether this succeeds — including those who are currently uninvolved.

Step 3: Map Current Stance and Intensity For each stakeholder: current position (Supportive / Neutral / Resistant / Unknown) and intensity (Strong / Mild).

Step 4: Analyse Supportive Stakeholders Who does each supporter influence? Whose support can they bring along? How can they be activated rather than staying passive?

Step 5: Analyse Resistant Stakeholders What is the specific objection driving resistance — not what you assume, but what you know or can find out? What would genuinely move them? What would they need to be true?

Step 6: Identify the Minimum Viable Coalition Before narrowing: Show the complete stakeholder list from Step 2–3 to the user first. Use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I've identified [N] stakeholders. Before I select the minimum viable coalition, are there any you'd flag as especially critical, or any I've missed?"
• Header: "Prioritise"
• Options:
  • Proceed with your selection — the set looks right
  • Flag one — user will name a specific stakeholder to include
  • Add a missing one — user will describe them

What is the smallest set of stakeholders that, if aligned, makes success likely? Focus energy on this set first.

Step 7: Design the Engagement Sequence Who should be approached first? Whose support makes others more likely to join? Whose endorsement unlocks a key gatekeeper?

---

Human Check-in

Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation of the situation in 1–2 sentences — what is being analyzed and what the core question is — then ask:

• Question: "My read: [your 1–2 sentence interpretation]. How do you want to proceed?"
• Header: "Scope"
• Options:
  • Full analysis — Complete all steps, reasoning shown throughout
  • Key findings only — Bottom-line output, skip step-by-step detail
  • Critical allies only — Who must be on board without whom this fails
  • Reframe — The read is off; correct it and the analysis will follow the corrected framing

Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.

Output Format

Stakeholder Stance Map

Stakeholder	Current Stance	Intensity	Influence Over Others
...	Supportive / Neutral / Resistant / Unknown	Strong / Mild	[Who they influence]

Minimum Viable Coalition

Name the core set and explain why their alignment is sufficient for success.

Engagement Sequence

1. [First contact — why them first]
2. [Second — whose support they unlock]
3. [Continue...]

What Moves Resistant Stakeholders

Stakeholder	Specific Objection	What Would Move Them
...	...	...

---

Notes

The engagement sequence matters as much as the coalition map — the order in which you build support shapes whether the coalition holds or fragments under pressure.

---

What's Next

After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:

• Question: "Coalition mapped. What's next?"
• Header: "Next"
• Options:
  • /s4h-strategy-alliance — Build strategy to expand or strengthen the coalition
  • /s4h-game-theory-coalition — Analyse the game dynamics within the coalition
  • /s4h-social-incentive-analysis — Align incentives to hold the coalition together
  • Done — Wrap up and synthesise what we have so far