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Analyzes coevolutionary escalation dynamics where parties adapt to each other in cycles. Identifies arms races, coevolving parties, and whether escalation benefits anyone.
How this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/skills-for-humanity:s4h-evolution-arms-raceThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
Richard Dawkins and John Krebs described the evolutionary arms race in their 1979 paper "Arms Races Between and Within Species": predator and prey, host and parasite, competitor and competitor coevolve in a cycle of adaptation and counter-adaptation that neither party controls and from which neither may benefit in relative terms. The cheetah gets faster, the gazelle gets faster; the bacterium e...
Richard Dawkins and John Krebs described the evolutionary arms race in their 1979 paper "Arms Races Between and Within Species": predator and prey, host and parasite, competitor and competitor coevolve in a cycle of adaptation and counter-adaptation that neither party controls and from which neither may benefit in relative terms. The cheetah gets faster, the gazelle gets faster; the bacterium evolves resistance, the immune system evolves a new response; the advertising budget escalates, the competitor matches it. At the end of multiple rounds, relative positions may be unchanged. Both parties have invested heavily in capabilities that cancel each other out. This is the coevolutionary treadmill.
The arms race dynamic is distinct from straightforward competition. In ordinary competition, parties compete for the same resource and selection determines a winner. In an arms race, each party is the primary selective pressure on the other. The cheetah's speed is not limited by terrain or prey abundance — it is limited by the gazelle's speed. The structure creates escalation: any advantage one party gains becomes a selection pressure on the other, which responds, which becomes a selection pressure in return. The result is a feedback loop with no natural stopping point.
Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis captures the relentless quality: organisms must keep evolving just to maintain their relative fitness against coevolving adversaries. "It takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place." This is why arms race analysis must ask not just "who is winning?" but "who benefits from the escalation continuing, and is there an exit?"
Step 1: Identify the Coevolving Parties Name the entities involved. An arms race requires that each party's adaptations constitute the primary selection pressure on the other — their changes are what the other party is primarily responding to, not changes in the broader environment. Confirm this is true for the situation at hand: is each party primarily adapting to the other, or are both primarily adapting to a shared external pressure?
Framing check: Confirm the coevolving parties and the reciprocal selection relationship before continuing. State what you've identified — who is adapting to whom, and what the escalating capability is — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:
Step 2: Map the Escalation Cycle Trace the adaptation cycle in detail. For each round:
Identify how many rounds have already occurred. Is the cycle speeding up, slowing down, or holding steady? Is escalation occurring on one dimension or multiple dimensions simultaneously?
Step 3: Assess the Asymmetries Not all arms races are symmetric. Identify the structural asymmetries that determine who holds advantage if escalation continues:
Before analysing exit conditions: Use AskUserQuestion:
Step 4: Identify Exit Conditions An arms race ends in one of four ways:
Assess which of these is most likely given the current trajectory and asymmetries. Identify whether either party currently has the option of decoupling — shifting the axis of competition to one where the arms race dynamic doesn't apply.
Step 5: Evaluate the Coevolutionary Treadmill Apply the Red Queen question: are both parties running faster to stay in the same place? Calculate or estimate the relative position change per unit of investment in escalation. If neither party is gaining relative ground, the arms race is pure waste — both are paying for capabilities that cancel each other out.
Identify who benefits from the arms race continuing (often: suppliers of the arms, third-party observers who gain from both parties being distracted, or the party with a structural advantage in the escalating dimension).
Step 6: Strategic Implication For the party asking: what does this arms race analysis prescribe? Options:
/s4h-game-theory-mechanism-design)Before proceeding, use the AskUserQuestion tool. State your interpretation in 1–2 sentences — who is in the arms race, what the escalation dynamic looks like, and what the key question is — then ask:
Proceed based on their selection. If the user reframes, incorporate the correction before running any analysis.
Coevolving Parties [Who is adapting to whom — the reciprocal selection relationship]
Escalation Cycle
| Round | Party A's Move | Selection Pressure Created | Party B's Response | Selection Pressure Created |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [n] | [capability/strategy developed] | [what pressure this creates for B] | [B's counter-move] | [what pressure this creates for A] |
Cycle Trajectory: [Accelerating / Steady / Decelerating — evidence for assessment]
Asymmetry Assessment
| Asymmetry Type | Party A | Party B | Advantage Holder |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resource depth | [strong / moderate / weak] | [strong / moderate / weak] | [A / B / roughly equal] |
| Cost per escalation unit | [low / moderate / high] | [low / moderate / high] | [A / B / roughly equal] |
| Capability ceiling | [distant / approaching / near] | [distant / approaching / near] | [A / B / roughly equal] |
| Response lag | [fast / moderate / slow] | [fast / moderate / slow] | [A / B / roughly equal] |
Exit Condition Assessment [Which of the four exit types is most likely — exhaustion, stalemate, decoupling, negotiated exit — and why]
Red Queen Assessment [Is either party gaining relative ground? How much investment is being consumed per unit of relative gain? Who benefits from the arms race continuing?]
Strategic Implication [Recommended posture: escalate strategically, decouple, negotiate exit, or sustain at pace — with reasoning]
The most important diagnostic question is whether this is a true coevolutionary arms race (each party is the primary selective pressure on the other) or two parties responding to the same external pressure in similar ways. The latter looks like an arms race but is not one — the solution is different. In a true arms race, the competitive pressure doesn't diminish if you improve; it intensifies, because the other party responds. In parallel adaptation to a shared external pressure, improving actually reduces the pressure on both.
Arms race dynamics appear across biology, geopolitics, business, and social systems. Advertising escalation between competitors; feature races in software; regulatory arbitrage between government and industry; anti-virus and malware co-evolution. The logic is always the same: mutual adaptation, escalating cost, uncertain relative gain.
Pairs with /s4h-game-theory-prisoners-dilemma when the arms race has a cooperation structure — both parties would benefit from de-escalating but neither can trust the other to stop. Pairs with /s4h-game-theory-mechanism-design for designing the exit mechanism that makes mutual de-escalation credible. Pairs with /s4h-evolution-niche if decoupling is the preferred exit — shifting to a different niche escapes the arms race entirely.
After delivering this output, use AskUserQuestion to offer the next move:
/s4h-game-theory-prisoners-dilemma — Analyse the cooperation failure that makes mutual de-escalation hard/s4h-evolution-niche — Find a different niche that decouples from this escalation cycle/s4h-game-theory-mechanism-design — Design an exit mechanism that makes de-escalation credible for both partiesnpx claudepluginhub human-avatar/skills-for-humanityRoutes to the right evolutionary reasoning tool based on your situation. Use when analyzing how populations, strategies, or systems change through variation, selection, niches, fitness landscapes, or coevolution.
Applies Sun Tzu's strategic hierarchy (plans > alliances > troops > cities) before direct confrontation, evaluating lower-cost options to reduce cost, destruction, and outcome uncertainty.