risk-check

Pre-Trade Risk Check

Overview

Act as a risk manager performing a pre-trade assessment. Collect market regime, technicals, volatility, and event risk data, then score the trade on an 8-flag risk system. Deliver a clear go/no-go with position sizing guidance.

Announce at start: "Running risk check for [TICKER]..."

Input

Parse $ARGUMENTS as a single stock ticker (e.g., AAPL, TSLA). If $ARGUMENTS is empty or contains more than one token, respond with: "Usage: /risk-check [TICKER] -- provide exactly one stock ticker." and STOP.

Normalize ticker to uppercase. Set ticker variable.

Data Collection

Wave 1 -- ALL calls in parallel

Tool	Parameters	Priority
tradingview_market_indices		REQUIRED
tradingview_quote	tickers=[ticker]	REQUIRED
tradingview_technicals	tickers=[ticker]	REQUIRED
options_implied_move	symbol=ticker	REQUIRED
finnhub_short_interest	symbol=ticker	REQUIRED
finnhub_earnings_calendar	from=today, to=today+14, symbol=ticker	REQUIRED
tradingview_sector_performance		ENRICHMENT
sentiment_fear_greed		ENRICHMENT
options_max_pain	symbol=ticker	ENRICHMENT

If a REQUIRED tool fails, report the failure and score that flag as UNKNOWN. If an ENRICHMENT tool fails, silently omit that section.

Analysis

DO NOT reproduce raw tool output. Use FLAG ACCUMULATION -- check each condition independently. Do NOT use nested if/else logic.

Initialize risk_flags = 0. Check each condition:

#	Condition	Threshold	Flag
1	VIX level	VIX > 25	+1
2	Market fear/greed index	Score < 25 (Ext. Fear)	+1
3	Stock RSI extreme	RSI > 70 OR RSI < 30	+1
4	Short interest elevated	Short % float > 15%	+1
5	Earnings event risk	Earnings within 14 days	+1
6	High implied volatility	Implied move > 5% (note: this threshold works best for large-cap stocks; mid/small-caps normally have higher implied moves)	+1
7	Price below long-term trend	Below 200-day SMA	+1
8	Sector weakness	Sector in bottom 3	+1

Scoring:

• 0-1 flags: LOW RISK -- green light, full position size acceptable
• 2-3 flags: MODERATE RISK -- proceed with caution, reduce to 50-75% size
• 4-5 flags: HIGH RISK -- reduce to 25-50% size, use tight stops
• 6+ flags: EXTREME RISK -- consider avoiding entirely or hedge the position

After scoring, derive key levels:

• Support: nearest technical support from technicals data
• Resistance: nearest technical resistance from technicals data
• Max pain: options max pain strike (if available)
• Suggested stop: below nearest support level, or 2-3% below entry for a standard risk tolerance

Output Format

[TICKER] -- Pre-Trade Risk Assessment

Price + Technical Snapshot Current price, change, RSI, SMA-20, SMA-50, SMA-200, overall technical signal (buy/sell/neutral).

Risk Flag Checklist

#	Risk Factor	Status	Value
1	VIX	PASS/FAIL	VIX = X.X
2	Fear & Greed	PASS/FAIL	Score = X
3	RSI Extreme	PASS/FAIL	RSI = X.X
4	Short Interest	PASS/FAIL	X% of float
5	Earnings Proximity	PASS/FAIL	Date or None
6	Implied Move	PASS/FAIL	X.X%
7	Below 200-SMA	PASS/FAIL	Price vs SMA
8	Sector Weakness	PASS/FAIL	Sector rank

PASS = flag NOT triggered (favorable). FAIL = flag triggered (risk present).

Risk Score: X / 8 flags -- [LEVEL]

Market Context VIX level and trend, Fear & Greed index value and label, broad market direction.

Sector Context Stock's sector, sector rank today, top and bottom 3 sectors.

Key Levels

Level	Price
Resistance	$X.XX
Current	$X.XX
Support	$X.XX
Max Pain	$X.XX
Stop-Loss	$X.XX

Verdict State risk level: LOW RISK / MODERATE RISK / HIGH RISK / EXTREME RISK. Position sizing guidance: specific percentage of normal size. Stop-loss recommendation: specific price level with rationale. 1-2 sentences on the dominant risk factor if score is 3+.

Limitations

Data from TradingView and Yahoo Finance is 15-minute delayed. CBOE and sentiment data is end-of-day. Verify critical levels with real-time data before executing trades.

Common Mistakes

• DO NOT use nested if/else for scoring. Check each flag independently and sum. This prevents logic errors where one condition masks another.
• DO NOT skip the earnings check. Earnings within 14 days is the single most common source of unexpected loss for new positions.
• DO NOT report PASS/FAIL without showing the actual value. The trader needs to see VIX=23.5 (PASS), not just PASS.
• DO NOT give position sizing advice without referencing the flag count. Every sizing recommendation MUST tie back to the risk score.