trading-desk

Trading Desk (Analyst → Research → Risk → PM Gate → Execution)

Goal

One orchestrated pass that mirrors an institutional desk: independent analysis, adversarial debate, portfolio-level risk check, behavioral discipline gate, and a final Portfolio-Manager decision that GATES whether a trade ticket is emitted. No single stage can wave a trade through. Output ends in APPROVE + ticket or REJECT + reasons - never a ticket on reject.

When to invoke

• User wants the complete process on a name before real capital
• A high-conviction idea needs a disciplined second look
• Before any position-sized entry (not a quick quote check)

Pipeline (run in order; each stage can veto)

Stage 0 - Mandate (REQUIRED):

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_profile - capital, account types (never hardcode)
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_decision_history (ticker=TICKER, max_decisions=5) + mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_reflection (symbol=TICKER, n=3) + mcp__aifolimizer__get_cross_ticker_lessons (max_lessons=3) - load prior decisions BEFORE the desk forms a view. If a prior decision exists and this run flips it, the PM must state explicitly WHY (new data / catalyst / price); never silently contradict a logged decision.
• Confirm ticker, direction (BUY/ADD/TRIM/SELL), horizon, rough size. If the user can't state a thesis, stop here (REJECT: no thesis).

Stage 1 - Analyst + adversarial research:

• Run the adversarial-research skill (bull / bear / consensus) on the ticker.
• Capture: fair-value estimate, key bull driver, key bear risk, base-rate.
• For US names, fold in mcp__aifolimizer__get_dcf_valuation as a quantitative fair-value anchor.

Stage 2 - Risk gate (HARD veto):

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_risk_gate_state - if BUYs are halted (drawdown / VIX / loss-streak), a BUY/ADD is auto-REJECTED regardless of conviction.
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_positioning_signals - crowding ≥70 on a BUY/ADD = veto (defer; negative expected alpha for late entries).
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_concentration_warnings - if this trade breaches single-name/sector limits, veto or force size-down.

Stage 3 - Pre-trade discipline gate (HARD veto):

• Run the pre-trade-check skill. If it returns REJECT, the desk REJECTS.

Stage 4 - Portfolio-Manager decision:

• Synthesize stages 1-3 into one explicit verdict:
  • APPROVE only if: thesis present, no risk-gate halt, crowding < 70 (or contrarian), pre-trade-check PASS, and reward:risk ≥ 1.5.
  • Otherwise REJECT with the specific failing gate(s).
• State conviction (HIGH/MED/LOW) - drives sizing in the ticket.

Stage 5 - Execution (ONLY if APPROVE):

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_trade_ticket with the action + conviction → entry zone, stop, exit ladder, sizing.
• mcp__aifolimizer__log_recommendation to forward-track the call.
• Optionally mcp__aifolimizer__log_hypothesis to register the thesis with acceptance/invalidation criteria.

Output

DESK VERDICT: APPROVE | REJECT
Ticker | Direction | Conviction
Gate results: research ✓/✗ · risk ✓/✗ · crowding ✓/✗ · pre-trade ✓/✗ · R:R ✓/✗
[If APPROVE] Trade ticket: entry zone, stop, exit ladder, size, account
[If REJECT]  Failing gate(s) + what would have to change to revisit

Rules

• A veto at ANY hard gate (Stage 2 risk halt, Stage 3 pre-trade REJECT) overrides high conviction. Do not emit a ticket.
• Never fabricate numbers - every figure traces to a tool call (see the data-grounding rule in stock-analysis).
• Tax note on the ticket: Non-Reg trims realize 50%-inclusion cap gains.