thinking-effectuation

Effectuation

Overview

Effectuation, developed by Saras Sarasvathy from studying expert entrepreneurs, inverts traditional causal reasoning. Instead of starting with a goal and finding resources, effectuators start with available means and discover goals through action. This approach is more robust in highly uncertain environments where prediction is unreliable.

Core Principle: When you can't predict the future, don't try. Instead, focus on what you can control and let the future emerge from your actions.

When to Use

• Startup and new product development
• Innovation in uncertain domains
• When prediction is unreliable
• Entering new markets
• When resources are constrained
• Side projects and experiments
• Career pivots

Decision flow:

Facing uncertainty about outcomes?
  → Can you predict the future reliably? → no → USE EFFECTUATION
  → Do you have fixed goals but uncertain resources? → yes → Traditional planning
  → Do you have available means but uncertain goals? → yes → USE EFFECTUATION

When NOT to Use

• Use effectuation only under genuine (Knightian) uncertainty — where outcomes can't be assigned meaningful probabilities because the market/technology/problem is novel. That's where "create the future through action" beats prediction.
• For predictable markets with a known model, use causal planning instead. If the market exists, the unit economics are knowable, and the path is a known sequence of steps, set the goal and plan to it — effectuation's "let goals emerge" wastes time you don't need to spend exploring.
• Not when the cost of a wrong action exceeds affordable loss. Effectuation assumes you can afford to act-and-learn; if a single misstep is ruinous, plan and de-risk first.

Trigger Card

When starting a new initiative in an uncertain domain where planning is unreliable:

1. Inventory your means — who you are, what you know, who you know. Start from what's available, not from a distant goal.
2. Take an affordable-loss step — what can you act on now where the downside is survivable if it fails? Act; don't plan.
3. Co-create with committed partners — find stakeholders willing to make real commitments, then let the direction emerge from their input.

If the market and path are predictable, use causal planning instead. If a single misstep is ruinous, de-risk before acting.

Causal vs Effectual Reasoning

Causal (Traditional)

1. Set a goal
2. Plan to achieve the goal
3. Gather necessary resources
4. Execute the plan
5. Measure against the goal

Example:
Goal: Build a $10M company
Plan: Build product X for market Y
Resources: Raise $2M, hire 10 people
Execute: 18-month development plan
Measure: Revenue against projections

Effectual (Entrepreneurial)

1. Start with your means
2. Take action with acceptable loss
3. Build partnerships
4. Leverage contingencies
5. Goals emerge from action

Example:
Means: I know databases, have some savings, know other engineers
Action: Build a small tool, see who's interested
Partners: Three early users want to co-create
Contingency: One user has a different problem that's bigger
Emerging goal: Pivot to new problem, user becomes co-founder

The Five Principles of Effectuation

1. Bird in Hand (Start with Means)

Begin with what you have:

## My Means Inventory

Who I am:
- Skills: [List skills]
- Preferences: [What I enjoy]
- Values: [What matters to me]

What I know:
- Domain expertise: [Areas of knowledge]
- Unique insights: [What I see that others don't]
- Technical skills: [What I can build]

Who I know:
- Potential partners: [People who might join]
- Potential customers: [People who might buy]
- Resources: [People who can help]

What can I do with THESE means?
(Don't start with "what's needed"—start with "what I have")

2. Affordable Loss (Acceptable Downside)

Focus on what you can afford to lose, not expected return:

## Affordable Loss Analysis

I can afford to lose:
- Time: 6 months of evenings/weekends
- Money: $5K of savings
- Opportunity: Delay of other projects
- Reputation: Minor if it fails quietly

I cannot afford to lose:
- Day job income
- Family time beyond X hours
- More than $5K

Action: Design the experiment to fit within affordable loss
        Don't calculate expected return—calculate maximum loss
        Can I live with maximum loss? If yes, proceed.

3. Crazy Quilt (Partnerships)

Co-create with anyone who commits:

## Partnership Building

Instead of: Finding resources for my predetermined plan
Do: Let partners shape the venture

Approach:
1. Share what I'm working on
2. Anyone who commits becomes a partner
3. They bring their means and constraints
4. The venture adapts to include them

Example:
- I start with: Database tool idea
- Partner 1 commits: Brings sales experience, shifts to B2B
- Partner 2 commits: Brings design, shifts to user-facing product
- Customer 1 commits: Brings specific use case, shapes roadmap

The venture becomes what committed partners make it.

4. Lemonade (Leverage Contingencies)

Treat surprises as opportunities:

## Contingency Response

Causal mindset: "That wasn't in the plan—it's a problem"
Effectual mindset: "That's unexpected—how can we use it?"

Examples:
- Competitor launches similar product
  Causal: "Our plan is threatened"
  Effectual: "They validated market, potential acquirer, potential partner"

- Key hire falls through
  Causal: "We're behind plan"
  Effectual: "Maybe we don't need that role; what can we do with who we have?"

- Customer wants something different
  Causal: "That's not our product"
  Effectual: "Maybe that IS our product"

5. Pilot in the Plane (Control, Don't Predict)

Focus on what you can control:

## Control vs Predict

Can't control/predict:
- Market movements
- Competitor actions
- Customer adoption rate
- Economic conditions
- Technology shifts

Can control:
- Who I work with
- What I build this week
- How I respond to feedback
- What partnerships I form
- How much I risk

Strategy: Maximize actions on controllable factors
          Don't waste energy predicting uncontrollable factors
          Create the future through action, not prediction

Effectuation Process

Step 1: Inventory Your Means

## Means Inventory

### Who I Am
- Background: [Experience, skills, identity]
- Passions: [What energizes me]
- Values: [What I won't compromise]

### What I Know
- Professional knowledge: [Domains]
- Technical skills: [Abilities]
- Market insights: [What I understand that others might not]

### Who I Know
- Close network: [People who would take my call]
- Extended network: [People who know people]
- Communities: [Groups I'm part of]

Step 2: Define Affordable Loss

## Affordable Loss

Time I can invest: [Hours/week, months]
Money I can lose: [$X]
Reputation at stake: [What's the downside?]
Opportunity cost: [What else am I not doing?]

Maximum I'm willing to lose: [Clear boundary]

Step 3: Take Action

## Next Action

Given my means and affordable loss:
What's the smallest action that could create information?

Options:
1. [Action] - Teaches me [what]
2. [Action] - Teaches me [what]
3. [Action] - Teaches me [what]

Selected action: [Action with best learning/risk ratio]

Step 4: Seek Commitments

## Partnership Outreach

Who might be interested in co-creating?

| Person | Their Means | Ask | Commitment |
|--------|-------------|-----|------------|
| [Name] | [Skills/resources] | [What to ask] | [What they commit] |

Each commitment expands my means and shapes the direction.

Step 5: Adapt and Iterate

## Iteration Log

| Action | Outcome | Surprise | How to leverage |
|--------|---------|----------|-----------------|
| | | | |

After each action:
- What did I learn?
- What commitments emerged?
- What contingencies can I leverage?
- What's the next action?

Effectuation Template

# Effectuation Analysis: [Venture/Project]

## Means Inventory
Who I am: [Identity, skills, values]
What I know: [Knowledge, expertise]
Who I know: [Network, relationships]

## Affordable Loss
Can afford: [Time, money, reputation]
Cannot afford: [Boundaries]
Maximum loss I'm willing to accept: [Clear number]

## Current Commitments
| Partner | Their Means | Commitment |
|---------|-------------|------------|
| | | |

## Contingencies Available
| Surprise | Potential Leverage |
|----------|-------------------|
| | |

## Next Action
Action: [Specific, small action]
Affordable loss: [What's at stake]
Learning goal: [What I'll know after]

## Emerging Direction
Where seems to be going: [Current trajectory]
How it differs from start: [Evolution]

When to Use Causal vs Effectual

Context	Approach	Why
Existing market, proven model	Causal	Prediction is reliable
New market, unproven model	Effectual	Prediction is unreliable
Abundant resources	Causal	Can afford to plan extensively
Constrained resources	Effectual	Must work with what you have
Clear goal	Causal	Plan toward the goal
Exploring opportunities	Effectual	Goals emerge from action
Risk can be calculated	Causal	Expected return is meaningful
Risk is uncertain	Effectual	Affordable loss is meaningful

Verification Checklist

• Inventoried available means
• Defined affordable loss (not expected return)
• Sought commitments, not just resources
• Treating surprises as opportunities
• Focusing on what I can control
• Taking action to learn, not to execute plan
• Letting goals emerge from action

Key Questions

• "What can I do with what I have?"
• "What am I willing to lose?"
• "Who might want to co-create this?"
• "How can I leverage this surprise?"
• "What can I control right now?"
• "What's the smallest action that teaches me something?"

Sarasvathy's Wisdom

"Effectual reasoning does not begin with a specific goal. Instead, it begins with a given set of means and allows goals to emerge contingently over time from the varied imaginations and diverse aspirations of the founders and the people they interact with."

"In the face of an uncertain future, entrepreneurs use effectual logic to fabricate—make—the future, rather than try to find or predict it."

You can't predict the future. But you can create it through action. Start with your means, take affordable risks, build with partners, leverage surprises, and control what you can. The goal will find you.