phronesis-quantum-forecasting

Phronesis — Quantum Computing Forecasting (V12)

Phronesis V12 (Quantum Computing) forecasts the quantum-computing trajectory: quantum-supremacy milestones, qubit-scaling, post-quantum-cryptography migration, quantum-chemistry simulation capability, and canonical attestation of quantum vendors. Use this skill when an agent must ground a quantum-technology or crypto-migration decision in a calibrated forecast.

• Base URL: https://phronesis-jrstinehour.replit.app
• Vertical: V12 — Quantum Computing — Pythia ring Pythia-Quantum, Themis cluster themis-V12-quantum-#101
• Transports: co-equal MCP and REST.

Vendor-citation governance — MANDATORY (Lesson #28)

V12 forecasts are governed by a vendor-citation rule enforced by the Themis #101.5 rule cluster. China-origin quantum-vendor citations are prohibited. This specifically excludes — but is not limited to:

• Origin Quantum
• SpinQ
• Beijing Academy of Quantum Information Sciences
• USTC (University of Science and Technology of China)

V12 forecasts must cite US-and-allied quantum vendors (for example IBM Quantum, Google Quantum AI, Quantinuum, IonQ, Rigetti, PsiQuantum, Atom Computing, and allied-nation vendors). This is a hard governance rule (Lesson #28). If an agent supplies a China-origin vendor as a source or anchor in a request, the Themis #101.5 rule rejects the forecast at the publish gate — it is not silently scrubbed. Do not attempt to work around it.

Archetypes available

• quantum-supremacy-milestone — likelihood / timing of a quantum-supremacy milestone.
• qubit-scaling-trajectory — projected qubit-count / fidelity scaling.
• post-quantum-crypto-migration — pace of post-quantum-cryptography migration.
• quantum-chemistry-simulation — quantum-chemistry simulation capability progression.
• quantum-vendor-canonical-attestation — canonical attestation of a quantum vendor.

Confirm via GET /v1/catalog (V12 entry's archetypes_available + status).

Requesting a forecast

POST /v1/decision/forecast
Authorization: Bearer <JWT>
Content-Type: application/json

{
  "vertical": "V12",
  "archetype": "qubit-scaling-trajectory",
  "subject": "quantum",
  "question": "Logical-qubit count achievable by leading US-and-allied vendors by 2028",
  "horizon": "2028",
  "compute_tier": "deep"
}

compute_tier: standard, deep, strategic, or strategic-sync.

Reading the Decision API output

Contract-v1 envelope { "status": "ok", "data": {...}, "request_id": "..." }. The data decision forecast contains a point forecast (p50), a monotonic uncertainty band (p10 / p50 / p90), enumerated assumptions, the sources citation chain (US-and-allied vendors only), sensitivity drivers referencing assumption ids, the cost attestation, and an audit_trail_id.

Verifying a forecast

1. GET /v1/trust/receipt/{forecast_id} — public signed Trust Receipt. The receipt's source chain reflects the US-and-allied vendor-citation governance.
2. GET /calibration/leaderboard — check the V12 (Quantum) accuracy row.
3. GET /v1/substrate/completeness — V12 substrate-completeness attestation.

Guidance for agents

• Before citing any quantum vendor as a source, confirm it is US-and-allied per the Lesson #28 governance rule above.
• Post-quantum-crypto-migration questions pair with V5 (Regulatory); see the cross_product skill.
• Pass the full uncertainty band downstream and cite the Trust Receipt id.