phronesis-longevity-forecasting

Phronesis — Longevity Forecasting (V11)

Phronesis V11 (Longevity & Human Health) forecasts the science of human longevity: lifespan-extension trajectories, biomarker-clock validation, geroscience-trial outcomes, longevity-therapy pipelines, and the maturation of cellular-rejuvenation substrate. Use this skill when an agent must ground a research or longevity-investment decision in a calibrated forecast.

• Base URL: https://phronesis-jrstinehour.replit.app
• Vertical: V11 — Longevity & Human Health — Pythia ring Pythia-Longevity, Themis cluster themis-V11-longevity-#99
• Transports: co-equal MCP and REST.

Data discipline — read first

V11 forecasts on population-aggregate, cohort-level data only. Do not send individual-identifiable health data in a request; subject matter must be population-, cohort-, or trial-level. Output is decision-support, not medical advice.

Archetypes available

• lifespan-extension-trajectory — projected pace of lifespan / healthspan extension.
• biomarker-clock-validation — likelihood a biomarker / aging clock is validated.
• geroscience-trial-outcome — probability a geroscience trial meets its endpoint.
• longevity-therapy-pipeline — pipeline-stage progression for longevity therapies.
• cellular-rejuvenation-substrate — maturation of cellular-rejuvenation technology.

Confirm via GET /v1/catalog (V11 entry's archetypes_available + status).

Requesting a forecast

POST /v1/decision/forecast
Authorization: Bearer <JWT>
Content-Type: application/json

{
  "vertical": "V11",
  "archetype": "geroscience-trial-outcome",
  "subject": "longevity",
  "question": "Probability a major rapamycin healthspan trial meets its primary endpoint by 2028",
  "horizon": "2028",
  "compute_tier": "deep"
}

compute_tier: standard, deep, strategic, or strategic-sync.

Reading the Decision API output

Contract-v1 envelope { "status": "ok", "data": {...}, "request_id": "..." }. The data decision forecast contains a point forecast (p50), a monotonic uncertainty band (p10 / p50 / p90), enumerated assumptions, the sources citation chain, sensitivity drivers referencing assumption ids, the cost attestation, and an audit_trail_id.

Verifying a forecast

1. GET /v1/trust/receipt/{forecast_id} — public signed Trust Receipt.
2. GET /calibration/leaderboard — check the V11 (Longevity) accuracy row.
3. GET /v1/substrate/completeness — V11 substrate-completeness attestation.

Guidance for agents

• Keep all inputs population-aggregate; never attempt individual-level prediction.
• Present probability forecasts with the full band and assumptions.
• Treat output as decision-support; do not relay it as clinical guidance.