phronesis-physics-materials-forecasting

Phronesis — Physics & Materials Forecasting (V10)

Phronesis V10 (Physics & Materials Discovery) forecasts the pace of scientific discovery: AI-driven materials discovery, physics-experimentation cadence, battery-chemistry breakthroughs, superconductor discovery, and the maturation of advanced-manufacturing substrate. Use this skill when an agent must ground a research, R&D-investment, or technology-bet decision in a calibrated forecast.

• Base URL: https://phronesis-jrstinehour.replit.app
• Vertical: V10 — Physics & Materials Discovery — Pythia ring Pythia-Physics-Materials, Themis cluster themis-V10-physics-materials-#97
• Transports: co-equal MCP and REST.

Archetypes available

• ai-materials-discovery — pace of AI-accelerated materials discovery.
• physics-experimentation-cadence — throughput of physics experimentation.
• battery-chemistry-breakthrough — likelihood / timing of battery-chemistry advances.
• superconductor-discovery — probability / timing of superconductor milestones.
• advanced-manufacturing-substrate — maturation of advanced-manufacturing capability.

Confirm via GET /v1/catalog (V10 entry's archetypes_available + status).

Requesting a forecast

POST /v1/decision/forecast
Authorization: Bearer <JWT>
Content-Type: application/json

{
  "vertical": "V10",
  "archetype": "battery-chemistry-breakthrough",
  "subject": "physics_materials",
  "question": "Probability a solid-state battery chemistry reaches commercial-scale production by 2029",
  "horizon": "2029",
  "compute_tier": "deep"
}

compute_tier: standard, deep, strategic, or strategic-sync.

Reading the Decision API output

Contract-v1 envelope { "status": "ok", "data": {...}, "request_id": "..." }. The data decision forecast contains a point forecast (p50), a monotonic uncertainty band (p10 / p50 / p90), enumerated assumptions, the sources citation chain, sensitivity drivers referencing assumption ids, the cost attestation, and an audit_trail_id.

Verifying a forecast

1. GET /v1/trust/receipt/{forecast_id} — public signed Trust Receipt.
2. GET /calibration/leaderboard — check the V10 (Physics & Materials) accuracy row.
3. GET /v1/substrate/completeness — V10 substrate-completeness attestation.

Guidance for agents

• Battery-chemistry forecasts pair with V1 (Energy) and V6 (Supply-Chain); see the cross_product skill for those crossings.
• Discovery forecasts carry wide bands; pass the full band and assumptions downstream.