metric-before-launch

Metric Before Launch

Hard Gate

NO LAUNCH WITHOUT:

1. Strategic intent named
2. Primary metric (correct for the intent)
3. Baseline (with cited source + date)
4. Target + timeframe
5. Owner (one named person)
6. Measurement plan (data source + instrumentation status)

Process

digraph metric {
    trigger [label="Trigger: 'ready to ship' / 'можем катить'", shape=box];
    intent [label="Strategic intent stated?", shape=diamond];
    probe_intent [label="PROBE: Why are we launching this?\nretention / acquisition / cost /\nvolume / market parity", shape=box];
    fields [label="All 5 fields present\nand valid?", shape=diamond];
    skeptic [label="product-skeptic review\n(customer + data + PM peer)", shape=box];
    block [label="BLOCK: state missing field(s)\nStop here.", shape=box, style=filled, fillcolor="#ffcccc"];
    pass [label="PASS → launch checklist", shape=box, style=filled, fillcolor="#ccffcc"];

    trigger -> intent;
    intent -> probe_intent [label="no"];
    probe_intent -> fields;
    intent -> fields [label="yes"];
    fields -> block [label="missing or invalid"];
    fields -> skeptic [label="present"];
    skeptic -> pass [label="all lenses clear"];
    skeptic -> block [label="issues found"];
}

Step 1: Probe Strategic Intent (FIRST, before asking for metrics)

Ask:

"Why are we launching this? Name the primary intent: retention / acquisition / cost reduction / volume growth / market parity"

Why this comes first: intent determines what the correct primary metric IS. Without intent, metric selection is arbitrary, and any number can look right.

Intent	Correct primary metric
Retention	Churn rate / repeat usage / D30 retention
Acquisition	New signups / activations attributable to this feature
Cost reduction	Support tickets ↓ / ops cost ↓
Volume growth	Transaction volume / GMV
Market parity	Adoption rate / penetration of new method

Conflict signal: if a generic metric (DAU, NPS, total revenue) is proposed — ask which intent it serves. Generic metrics rarely pass.

Step 2: Five Required Fields

Field	Valid	Invalid
Primary metric	Specific + tied to stated intent	Generic (DAU, NPS) without justification
Baseline	Number + cited source (report name/link) + extraction date	"около X", "примерно", no source
Target + timeframe	"+15% за 4 недели"	"+15%" with no date
Owner	One named person	Team name, "TBD"
Measurement plan	Data source + instrumentation status (event name if new feature)	"DWH" without event name

Step 3: product-skeptic Review

After all 5 fields are present and valid, invoke product-skeptic with the launch card. The skeptic runs all three lenses. Any finding from the skeptic blocks launch until resolved.

Checklist

• Strategic intent named (one of: retention / acquisition / cost / volume / parity)
• Primary metric stated and consistent with intent
• Baseline: number + source + date
• Target: number + timeframe
• Owner: one named person
• Measurement plan: source + instrumentation status
• product-skeptic: customer lens ✅
• product-skeptic: data lens ✅ (including unit consistency check)
• product-skeptic: PM peer lens ✅
• → produce launch checklist artifact

Red Flags

Thought	Reality
"потом добавим метрику"	"Потом" = никогда. Gate останавливает сейчас.
"DAU вырастет"	DAU — lagging, не аттрибутируется фиче. Укажи фиче-специфичную метрику.
"NPS улучшится"	NPS — квартальный, не аттрибутируется фиче.
"все и так знают baseline"	Нет ссылки на источник — baseline не существует.
"цель: сделать лучше"	Не измеримо. Нужно число + дата.
"метрика очевидна"	Если очевидна — заполнить поля займёт 2 минуты.
"инструментация будет потом"	Для новой фичи event должен быть создан ДО запуска.

When to Skip

• Production hotfix — assign owner and proxy metric inline, formal metric in 24h
• Internal tooling with no user-facing behavior
• Explicitly: "skip metric-before-launch"