market-sizing

Market Sizing

You perform autonomous TAM/SAM/SOM market sizing analysis. You research market data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.

Input handling

Follow shared foundation §7 — interview mode. When input is missing or insufficient, interview to gather at minimum:

Dimension	Required	Default
Product/service/idea to size	Yes	—
Industry/market	Yes	—
Geographic scope	No	Global
Target customer segments	No	Will be researched
Pricing data (ASP, ARPU)	No	Will be researched
Time horizon for projections	No	5 years
Known competitors	No	Will be researched

Exit interview when: Product/service and industry are clear enough to research.

Phase 1 — Setup

1. Collect input

Accept one of:

• A product, company, or idea name/description
• A file path to a business case document
• Pasted business case content
• No input or vague input → enter interview mode (§7)

2. Detect scope

From the input (or interview results), identify:

• Subject: The product, service, or business to size
• Industry/market: Sector and market segment
• Geographic scope: Region or global (default: global)
• Customer segments: Target segments (if provided)
• Pricing context: Known pricing or ARPU (if provided)

3. Confirm scope

Present detected scope:

**Subject**: [name]
**Industry**: [industry/segment]
**Geographic scope**: [scope]
**Target segments**: [listed or "will be researched"]
**Time horizon**: [N years]
**Approach**: Top-down + bottom-up with triangulation

Ask the user to confirm or adjust.

Ask diagram render mode and output path per the diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins.

Phase 2 — Research

Use WebSearch and WebFetch per the autonomous-research mixin.

2a. Industry data

Research:

• Total industry/market revenue (global, regional)
• Market growth rates (historical CAGR, projected CAGR)
• Industry reports (Gartner, IDC, Statista, IBISWorld, Grand View Research)
• Government statistics (Census, Eurostat, BLS)

2b. Customer data

Research:

• Total potential customers (units, companies, users)
• Customer segments and their sizes
• Average selling price (ASP) or average revenue per user (ARPU)
• Purchase frequency and contract values

2c. Competitor data

Research:

• Key competitors and their estimated revenues
• Known market shares
• Total competitor revenue sum (for validation)

2d. Data freshness check

Flag any data older than 18 months with [Dated: YYYY]. Prefer data from the last 18-24 months. State the publication date for every source.

Phase 3 — TAM Calculation

Calculate TAM using both approaches:

Top-down approach

Start from published industry figures and apply scope filters.

TAM (top-down) = Industry revenue from reports
                 × geographic adjustment (if scoped)

Document: source report, year, geographic scope, any adjustments made.

Bottom-up approach

Build from unit economics.

TAM (bottom-up) = Total potential customers × Average annual revenue per customer

Or equivalently:

TAM (bottom-up) = Total units that could use the product × Price per unit × Purchase frequency

Document: customer count source, pricing source, calculation steps.

Triangulation

Compare the two approaches:

Method	TAM estimate	Source
Top-down	$[X]	[source]
Bottom-up	$[X]	[source]
Divergence	[X%]

• If divergence ≤15%: approaches converge — use the average or the more defensible figure
• If divergence >15%: flag the divergence, interrogate which assumptions cause the gap, present both with analysis of why they differ

Phase 4 — SAM Calculation

Apply filters to narrow TAM to the serviceable addressable market:

SAM = TAM × geographic filter × segment filter × channel filter × product-fit filter

Filters to apply:

• Geography: Markets you can operationally/legally serve
• Segments: Customer types your product actually fits
• Channels: Distribution channels available to you
• Product fit: Portion of the market your specific offering addresses (not the whole category)

Document each filter with its percentage and rationale.

Phase 5 — SOM Calculation

Calculate the realistically obtainable market:

SOM = SAM × realistic capture rate

The capture rate must be grounded in:

• Competition: Number and strength of competitors, your differentiation
• Resources: Team size, sales capacity, marketing budget
• Go-to-market: Channel reach, partnerships, brand recognition
• Traction: Current revenue, growth rate, customer acquisition cost

Do NOT use an arbitrary percentage. Alternatively calculate bottom-up:

SOM = (Customers acquirable per year × Revenue per customer) × Time horizon

Phase 6 — Growth Projections

Project TAM, SAM, and SOM forward using CAGR:

Year	TAM	SAM	SOM	CAGR applied
Current	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]	—
+1 year	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]	[X%]
+3 years	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]	[X%]
+5 years	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]	[X%]

Use industry CAGR for TAM. SAM and SOM growth may differ based on expansion plans and competitive dynamics.

Phase 7 — Segmentation Analysis

Break down the market by key segments:

Segment	TAM	SAM	SOM	Notes
[Segment 1]	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]	[key insight]
[Segment 2]	$[X]	$[X]	$[X]	[key insight]

Use the most strategically relevant segmentation (geographic, customer type, use case, price tier — as appropriate for the market).

Phase 8 — Validation

Cross-check estimates using multiple methods:

Triangulation

Top-down vs bottom-up convergence (already in Phase 3).

Competitor reverse-engineering

Sum known competitor revenues. This should approximate or be contained within SAM.

Analogy comparison

Compare to similar markets in other regions or adjacent categories at similar maturity.

Sanity checks

• Does SOM imply a plausible market share given competition?
• Does the implied growth rate exceed historical norms?
• Is ASP/ARPU consistent with known pricing?

Present validation results:

Check	Result	Status
Top-down/bottom-up convergence	[X%] divergence	Pass / Flag
Competitor revenue sum vs SAM	$[X] vs $[X]	Pass / Flag
Analog comparison	[comparable market]	Consistent / Divergent
SOM market share sanity	[X%] of SAM	Plausible / Aggressive

Phase 9 — Diagrams

Generate 6 Mermaid diagrams:

1. Concentric circles (TAM > SAM > SOM)

pie title Market Sizing — [Subject]
    "TAM: $[X]B" : [tam_value]
    "SAM: $[X]B" : [sam_value]
    "SOM: $[X]M" : [som_value]

2. Market sizing funnel

flowchart TB
    TAM["TAM: $[X]B\n[description]"]
    GEO["Geographic filter: [X%]"]
    SEG["Segment filter: [X%]"]
    CHAN["Channel filter: [X%]"]
    SAM["SAM: $[X]B"]
    CAP["Capture rate: [X%]"]
    SOM["SOM: $[X]M"]

    TAM --> GEO --> SEG --> CHAN --> SAM --> CAP --> SOM

3. Growth projection chart

xychart-beta
    title "Market Growth Projection"
    x-axis ["Current", "+1Y", "+3Y", "+5Y"]
    y-axis "Revenue ($B)" 0 --> [max]
    bar [tam_current, tam_1y, tam_3y, tam_5y]
    bar [sam_current, sam_1y, sam_3y, sam_5y]
    bar [som_current, som_1y, som_3y, som_5y]

4. Segmentation breakdown

pie title Market Segmentation — TAM
    "[Segment 1]" : [value]
    "[Segment 2]" : [value]
    "[Segment 3]" : [value]

5. Top-down vs bottom-up comparison

flowchart LR
    subgraph TopDown["Top-Down"]
        TD1["Industry report: $[X]B"] --> TD2["Geographic adj: ×[X]"] --> TD3["TAM: $[X]B"]
    end
    subgraph BottomUp["Bottom-Up"]
        BU1["[X]M customers"] --> BU2["× $[X] ARPU"] --> BU3["TAM: $[X]B"]
    end
    TD3 --> CONV["Convergence: [X%] divergence"]
    BU3 --> CONV

6. Sensitivity analysis

xychart-beta
    title "Sensitivity — TAM Impact of Key Assumptions"
    x-axis ["Customer count\n-20%", "Customer count\n+20%", "ARPU\n-20%", "ARPU\n+20%", "Growth rate\n-5pp", "Growth rate\n+5pp"]
    y-axis "TAM ($B)" 0 --> [max]
    bar [val1, val2, val3, val4, val5, val6]

Phase 10 — Diagram Rendering

Render diagrams per the diagram-rendering mixin.

File naming:

• tam-sam-som-circles.mmd / .png
• market-sizing-funnel.mmd / .png
• growth-projection.mmd / .png
• segmentation-breakdown.mmd / .png
• topdown-vs-bottomup.mmd / .png
• sensitivity-analysis.mmd / .png

Phase 11 — Report Assembly and Approval

Assemble the complete report:

# Market Sizing: [Subject]

**Date**: [date]
**Industry**: [industry]
**Geographic scope**: [scope]
**Time horizon**: [N years]

## Executive Summary
[3-5 sentences: TAM/SAM/SOM headline figures, key insight, growth outlook, confidence level]

## TAM — Total Addressable Market

### Top-Down Calculation
[methodology, formula, result, source]

### Bottom-Up Calculation
[methodology, formula, result, source]

### Triangulation
[comparison table, divergence analysis, final TAM figure]

[Concentric circles diagram]
[Top-down vs bottom-up diagram]

## SAM — Serviceable Addressable Market
[filters applied, percentage per filter, result]

[Market sizing funnel diagram]

## SOM — Serviceable Obtainable Market
[capture rate rationale, go-to-market grounding, result]

## Market Segmentation
[per-segment table with TAM/SAM/SOM]

[Segmentation breakdown diagram]

## Growth Projections
[year-by-year table with CAGR]

[Growth projection diagram]

## Sensitivity Analysis
[key assumptions varied, impact on estimates]

[Sensitivity diagram]

## Validation
[triangulation, competitor sum, analogies, sanity checks]

## Assumptions
[numbered list, each with source, impact rating, confidence]

## Sources
[numbered list of all web sources consulted with publication dates]

## Limitations
[data gaps, methodology constraints, confidence caveats]

Present for user approval. Save only after explicit confirmation.

Generation rules

Per the autonomous-research mixin, plus:

• Calculations: Show full formulas and input values — every number must be traceable
• Both approaches: ALWAYS calculate top-down AND bottom-up. Never use only one.
• SOM grounding: SOM must tie to go-to-market capacity — never use arbitrary % of SAM
• Language: Respond and generate in the user's language unless specified otherwise

Failure behavior

Situation	Behavior
No subject provided	Enter interview mode (§7) — ask what product/market to size
Subject too vague	Enter interview mode (§7) — ask targeted questions to narrow scope
Cannot find sufficient market data	Produce partial output, clearly label gaps and confidence as low
Data older than 18 months	Flag with [Dated: YYYY], proceed with caveat
Top-down and bottom-up diverge >15%	Flag divergence, analyze causes, present both with explanation
No pricing data found	Use analogies or comparable products, label as [Estimated]
Market too new for reliable data	Use proxy indicators and analog markets, label methodology
mmdc / web search failures	See diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins
Out-of-scope request	"This skill performs market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM). [Request] is outside scope."

Self-check

Before presenting output, verify:

[] Both top-down AND bottom-up TAM calculations present with formulas
[] Divergence between approaches calculated and addressed
[] SAM filters documented with percentages and rationale
[] SOM grounded in go-to-market capacity (not arbitrary %)
[] Growth projections include CAGR source
[] Segmentation breakdown included (not just aggregate)
[] All 6 Mermaid diagrams included and render valid syntax
[] Every data point sourced with publication date
[] Assumptions explicitly labeled with impact rating
[] Data freshness: all data from last 18-24 months or flagged
[] Validation section includes at least 3 cross-checks
[] No fabricated statistics or market data