Autonomous financial forecasting with revenue, expense, cash flow, P&L projections, and unit economics. Supports multiple methods (straight-line, driver-based, bottom-up, top-down). Scenario modeling and sensitivity analysis with Mermaid diagrams and optional PNG export.
How this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/financial-forecasting:financial-forecastingThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
You create financial forecasts projecting future financial performance. You research market benchmarks and comparable company data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.
You create financial forecasts projecting future financial performance. You research market benchmarks and comparable company data yourself — do not ask the user for data they would need to look up. Only ask the user for decisions and confirmations.
This skill complements cost-benefit-analysis (which evaluates specific decisions) and roi-modeling (which calculates returns) by projecting the overall financial trajectory of a business or project.
| Method | Approach | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| Straight-line | Constant growth rate projection | Mature, stable businesses |
| Growth rate | Linear, exponential, or S-curve | Growth-stage businesses |
| Driver-based | Key drivers → financial outcomes | Complex businesses with clear operational metrics |
| Bottom-up | Units × price, customers × ARPU | Businesses with known unit economics |
| Top-down | Market size × market share | Early-stage or market entry |
| Hybrid | Bottom-up + top-down triangulation | Most accurate for established businesses |
Follow shared foundation §7 — interview mode. When input is missing or insufficient, interview to gather at minimum:
| Dimension | Required | Default |
|---|---|---|
| Business/project context | Yes | — |
| Historical financial data | No | Will use research + benchmarks |
| Business model | No | Inferred from context |
| Time horizon | No | 3 years |
| Granularity | No | Monthly Y1, quarterly Y2-3 |
| Key drivers | No | Will be identified |
Exit interview when: Business context is clear enough to identify revenue model, cost structure, and key drivers.
Accept one of:
From the input, identify:
**Business**: [name]
**Revenue model**: [type]
**Stage**: [pre-revenue / early / growth / mature]
**Data source**: [historical data / research-based]
**Time horizon**: [N years]
**Granularity**: [monthly Y1, quarterly Y2-3]
Ask the user to confirm or adjust. Ask diagram render mode and output path per the diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins.
Use WebSearch and WebFetch per the autonomous-research mixin.
| Model | Revenue formula | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription/SaaS | Customers × ARPU; MRR/ARR with churn | New sales, expansion, contraction, churn rate |
| Transactional | Transactions × average order value | Traffic, conversion rate, AOV |
| Marketplace | GMV × take rate | Buyers, sellers, GMV, take rate |
| Licensing | Licenses × price; maintenance/support | New licenses, renewals, support contracts |
| Services | Consultants × utilization × rate | Headcount, utilization rate, bill rate |
| Freemium | Free users × conversion rate × ARPU | User base, conversion, monetization |
| Category | Type | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| COGS | Variable | Per unit or % of revenue |
| Salaries | Fixed (stepped) | Headcount × avg salary; hiring plan |
| Marketing | Semi-variable | Budget + % of revenue |
| Infrastructure | Semi-variable | Base + per-user/per-transaction scaling |
| Rent/office | Fixed | Lease terms, escalation |
| R&D | Fixed (stepped) | Engineering headcount |
Identify 3-7 operational metrics that drive financial outcomes. Examples:
Present business model summary for user confirmation.
Choose based on data availability and business stage:
| Component | Calculation | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Beginning MRR | Previous period ending MRR | Monthly |
| + New MRR | New customers × ARPU | Monthly |
| + Expansion MRR | Upsells, upgrades | Monthly |
| - Contraction MRR | Downgrades | Monthly |
| - Churned MRR | Lost customers × their ARPU | Monthly |
| = Ending MRR | Sum | Monthly |
| ARR | Ending MRR × 12 | Annual |
| Period | [Segment 1] | [Segment 2] | Total Revenue | Growth % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | [amount] | [amount] | [total] | — |
| M2 | [amount] | [amount] | [total] | [%] |
Monthly for Year 1, quarterly for Years 2-3 (or as specified).
| Item | Monthly | Annual | Escalation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [item] | [amount] | [amount] | [% per year] | [justification] |
| Item | Unit cost | Driver | Formula | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [item] | [amount] | [metric] | [unit cost × driver] | [justification] |
| Item | Fixed base | Variable component | Formula | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [item] | [amount] | [rate × driver] | [base + variable] | [justification] |
| Role | Start | Hires Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Y2 | Y3 | Salary |
|---|
| Period | COGS | Salaries | Marketing | Infrastructure | Other OpEx | Total |
|---|
| Line item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| COGS | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | [% of rev] |
| Gross Profit | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Gross Margin % | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry %] |
| Operating Expenses | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| EBIT | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Operating Margin % | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry %] |
| Interest & Tax | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Net Income | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
| Net Margin % | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry %] |
Flag margins that deviate significantly from industry benchmarks.
| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| + Depreciation/Amortization | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| + Working capital changes | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Operating Cash Flow | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Investing Cash Flow | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funding / loans | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Repayments | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Financing Cash Flow | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Period | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash | Burn Rate (monthly) | Runway (months) |
|---|
Burn rate = total monthly cash outflow (for pre-profit companies) Runway = cash balance / monthly net burn rate
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAC | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | [industry] |
| LTV | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | [industry] |
| LTV:CAC | [ratio] | [ratio] | [ratio] | ≥ 3:1 |
| CAC Payback | [months] | [months] | [months] | < 12 months |
| Gross Margin | [%] | [%] | [%] | [industry] |
| Contribution Margin | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] | — |
Show evolution over time — unit economics should improve as the business scales.
| Parameter | Best case | Base case | Worst case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | [higher] | [expected] | [lower] |
| Churn rate | [lower] | [expected] | [higher] |
| Customer acquisition | [faster] | [expected] | [slower] |
| Cost escalation | [lower] | [expected] | [higher] |
| Market conditions | [favorable] | [neutral] | [adverse] |
| Metric | Best | Base | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y3 Revenue | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Y3 Net Income | [amount] | [amount] | [amount] |
| Cash Runway | [months] | [months] | [months] |
| Break-even | [period] | [period] | [never/period] |
Identify 3-5 variables with highest impact on key metrics.
| Variable | -20% | Base | +20% | Revenue Impact | Net Income Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [variable] | [value] | [value] | [value] | [delta] | [delta] |
| Variable | Break-even value | Current value | Safety margin |
|---|
xychart-beta
title Revenue Forecast by Scenario
x-axis ["Q1", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Y2Q1", "Y2Q2", "Y2Q3", "Y2Q4", "Y3Q1", "Y3Q2", "Y3Q3", "Y3Q4"]
y-axis "Revenue" 0 --> 2000000
line [50000, 80000, 120000, 180000, 280000, 400000, 550000, 720000, 900000, 1100000, 1350000, 1600000]
line [50000, 75000, 100000, 140000, 200000, 270000, 350000, 440000, 540000, 650000, 770000, 900000]
line [50000, 65000, 80000, 100000, 130000, 160000, 190000, 220000, 250000, 280000, 310000, 340000]
Three lines: best case, base case, worst case.
xychart-beta
title P&L Summary — Year 1
x-axis ["Revenue", "COGS", "Gross Profit", "OpEx", "EBIT", "Tax", "Net Income"]
y-axis "Amount" 0 --> 1000000
bar [900000, 270000, 630000, 500000, 130000, 30000, 100000]
xychart-beta
title Cumulative Cash Position
x-axis ["M1", "M3", "M6", "M9", "M12", "Q5", "Q6", "Q7", "Q8", "Q9", "Q10", "Q11", "Q12"]
y-axis "Cash" -500000 --> 1000000
line [-100000, -250000, -350000, -300000, -150000, 0, 100000, 250000, 400000, 550000, 700000, 850000, 1000000]
xychart-beta
title Unit Economics Evolution
x-axis ["Q1", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Y2H1", "Y2H2", "Y3H1", "Y3H2"]
y-axis "Ratio" 0 --> 5
line [0.8, 1.2, 1.8, 2.3, 2.8, 3.2, 3.5, 4.0]
LTV:CAC ratio over time (target line at 3.0).
Render diagrams per the diagram-rendering mixin.
File naming:
revenue-projection.mmd / .pngpnl-waterfall.mmd / .pngcash-flow.mmd / .pngunit-economics.mmd / .pngAssemble the complete report:
# Financial Forecast: [Business/Project]
**Date**: [date]
**Business**: [name]
**Revenue model**: [type]
**Time horizon**: [N years]
**Granularity**: [monthly Y1, quarterly Y2-3]
**Revenue Y1/Y2/Y3**: [amounts]
**Net Income Y1/Y2/Y3**: [amounts]
**Cash runway**: [months] (if applicable)
**LTV:CAC**: [ratio] (if applicable)
## Executive Summary
[Key findings: revenue trajectory, profitability timeline, cash position, critical assumptions]
## Business Model Summary
[Phase 3 — revenue model, cost structure, key drivers]
## Key Drivers
[Driver identification with formulas]
## Revenue Forecast
[Phase 4 revenue table + Diagram 1]
## Expense Forecast
[Phase 5 expense tables]
## P&L Projection
[Phase 6 P&L table + Diagram 2]
## Cash Flow Forecast
[Phase 7 cash flow tables + Diagram 3]
## Unit Economics
[Phase 8 unit economics table + Diagram 4]
## Scenario Analysis
[Phase 9 scenarios with per-scenario summaries]
## Sensitivity Analysis
[Phase 10 variable analysis + break-even conditions]
## Key Assumptions Register
[All assumptions documented with source and confidence]
## Recommendations
[Prioritized actions: revenue acceleration, cost optimization, funding needs]
## Sources
[Numbered list of web sources]
## Assumptions & Limitations
[Explicit list with confidence levels]
Present for user approval. Save only after explicit confirmation.
Per the autonomous-research mixin, plus:
| Situation | Behavior |
|---|---|
| No business context | Enter interview mode — ask what business or project to forecast |
| Context too vague | Enter interview mode — ask targeted questions about revenue model and stage |
| No historical data | Use research-based projections with [Assumption] labels and benchmark sources |
| Business model unclear | Research comparable companies, propose model, confirm with user |
| Industry benchmarks unavailable | Use adjacent industry data, label as [Approximate] |
| Projections appear unrealistic | Flag with comparison to benchmarks, present anyway with caveat |
| mmdc / web search failures | See diagram-rendering and autonomous-research mixins |
| Out-of-scope request | "This skill creates financial forecasts. [Request] is outside scope." |
Before presenting output, verify:
[] Revenue forecast uses appropriate method(s) with documented drivers
[] Revenue growth justified by driver assumptions (no unexplained hockey sticks)
[] Expenses categorized (fixed/variable/semi-variable) with escalation rules
[] P&L complete: revenue → COGS → gross profit → OpEx → EBIT → net income
[] All P&L lines sum correctly (mathematical consistency)
[] Margins tracked and compared to industry benchmarks
[] Cash flow includes operating, investing, financing components
[] Burn rate and runway calculated (if pre-profit)
[] Unit economics calculated: CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback period
[] Unit economics show evolution over time
[] 3 scenarios with distinct, documented assumptions
[] Sensitivity analysis on 3-5 key variables
[] Break-even conditions identified
[] All assumptions documented in register with source and confidence
[] Monthly granularity for Year 1 (or as specified)
[] All 4 Mermaid diagrams render valid syntax (per diagram-rendering mixin)
[] Sources listed for benchmarks and claims (per autonomous-research mixin)
[] Assumptions labeled with confidence (per autonomous-research mixin)
Provides UI/UX resources: 50+ styles, color palettes, font pairings, guidelines, charts for web/mobile across React, Next.js, Vue, Svelte, Tailwind, React Native, Flutter. Aids planning, building, reviewing interfaces.
Fetches up-to-date documentation from Context7 for libraries and frameworks like React, Next.js, Prisma. Use for setup questions, API references, and code examples.
npx claudepluginhub ssiertsema/claude-code-plugins --plugin financial-forecasting