wp-effort-estimation

Effort Estimation Skill

Produce structured effort estimates for WordPress development tasks — including the React surfaces of WordPress (Gutenberg blocks, Interactivity API, block themes, headless frontends). Always output three things: Complexity Tier, Hours/Days Range, and Confidence Range.

Scope: "React" in this skill always means React in a WordPress context (block editor, Interactivity API, admin UIs, headless WP). Generic standalone-React projects (no WP involvement) are out of scope — decline and redirect.

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Before You Estimate: Clarify if Needed

If the task description lacks a clear deliverable or scope, ask up to 2 clarifying questions before estimating. Do not produce a number when the spread would be meaninglessly wide (e.g. ±300%).

Good triggers to pause and ask:

• No clear deliverable ("build a membership system", "improve performance")
• Stack is ambiguous (WordPress + React could mean headless WP, an Interactivity API block, a custom Gutenberg block, or a wp-admin React app)
• Integration mentioned but API/provider unknown

Ask the minimum needed to produce a useful estimate. One focused question is better than a checklist. Once you have enough, proceed.

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Output Format

Every estimate must include:

1. Complexity Tier

Tier	What it means
S	Straightforward, well-understood task. Minimal unknowns.
M	Moderate scope. Some design decisions or integration work.
L	Significant scope. Multiple components, systems, or edge cases.
XL	High uncertainty or large surface area. Requires breakdown before dev starts.

2. Hours/Days Estimate

Give a specific midpoint estimate, e.g. "~6 hours" or "~3 days". Use hours for tasks under 2 days; days for anything larger.

3. Confidence Range

Give a best-case / worst-case spread, e.g. "4–10 hours" or "2–5 days". Wider range = more unknowns. Always explain what drives the spread.

Ticket field guidance: Use the tier for portfolio/roadmap views (S/M/L/XL is coarser and ages better). Use the hours/days for sprint commitment. Don't paste both into the same single-value field — pick one per field and put the other in the description.

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Estimation Process

1. Classify the tech stack — Is this pure WordPress (PHP/theme/plugin), React-in-WP (block editor, Interactivity API, headless WP), or both? MUST read the relevant reference file(s) before writing the estimate — baseline numbers and risk multipliers live there, not in this file.

   • WordPress (PHP) tasks → read references/wordpress.md
   • React-in-WP tasks → read references/react.md
   • Both → read both

2. Identify task type — What category does this fall into? (See reference files for task taxonomies.)

3. Check for unknowns — Flag anything that could expand scope:

   • Third-party APIs or integrations
   • Design not finalized
   • Legacy codebase / tech debt
   • Performance or accessibility requirements
   • Multi-environment (staging, prod, CDN, etc.)
   • Cross-browser or mobile requirements

4. Apply complexity multipliers (see General Multipliers section below)

5. Write the estimate using the template below

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Baseline Assumptions

• Developer seniority: Senior-level dev highly familiar with the stack. Flag if the task needs a migration-specialized senior dev (platform migration, custom DB schema, multisite, headless cutover, Woo subscriptions) — those warrant a separate spike or higher rate.
• Scaffold: Pre-configured project scaffold assumed (build tooling, CI, base theme/plugin shell). Greenfield multiplier stays at ×1.0.

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Estimate Template

## Effort Estimate

**Task:** [one-line description]
**Stack:** WordPress / React-in-WP / Both

**Complexity Tier:** [S / M / L / XL]
**Estimate:** ~[X hours / X days effort] / ~[Y days duration]
**Confidence Range:** [low]–[high] [hours/days]

### Breakdown
*(Required for M, L, XL tasks. Optional for S.)*
| Subtask | Estimate |
|---------|----------|
| [step 1] | X hrs |
| [step 2] | X hrs |
| ... | ... |
| **Total** | **X hrs** |

### What's Included
- [assumption 1]
- [assumption 2]

### Risks & Unknowns
- [risk 1 — impact on range]
- [risk 2 — impact on range]

### Recommendations
*(Required for XL tasks. Optional for S/M/L.)*
[For XL: always recommend a spike/discovery ticket instead of committing to a full estimate.
For L: flag if the task should be broken into smaller tickets.
For S/M: omit or leave blank if nothing noteworthy.]

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General Multipliers (apply on top of base estimates)

Condition	Multiplier
Greenfield (no existing codebase)	×1.0
Existing codebase, clean	×1.1–1.3
Legacy / messy codebase	×1.5–2.0
No design provided	+20–30%
Third-party integration (unknown API)	+50–100%
Accessibility (WCAG AA) required	+15–25%
Tests required (unit/e2e)	+25–40%
Multi-language / i18n	+20–35%

How to stack multipliers

Apply codebase factor first (multiplicative), then additive factors on top of the result. Keep one decimal of precision in intermediate steps; round only the final number.

Worked example — base: 8 hrs for a dynamic Gutenberg block, clean existing codebase, no design, WCAG AA required, unit tests required:

8 × 1.2 (clean codebase)     = 9.6
9.6 × 1.25 (no design, +25%) = 12.0
12.0 × 1.20 (a11y, +20%)     = 14.4
14.4 × 1.30 (tests, +30%)    = 18.7
→ round to 19 hrs (~2.5 days)

If multiple codebase-factor rows could apply, pick one (the worst-case one) — don't stack ×1.2 × ×1.5.

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Effort vs Duration

The estimate is effort (focused dev time). Duration — wall-clock from ticket open to merge — is typically 1.5–2× longer due to code review, design handoffs, QA, deploy windows, and context switching. State both when the audience is a PM or client, not just engineers.

Example output: ~8 hrs effort / ~2 days duration (assumes 1 review round + staging QA)

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Calibration

Log actual hours when closing the ticket. If actual vs estimated variance is >30%, note what caused the drift — this is the highest-value input for improving future estimates. Common drift sources: underestimated legacy debt, API surprises, scope creep in review, and QA finding edge cases late.

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Tone & Communication

• Be direct and specific — give a number, not just "it depends"
• Always explain the confidence spread (what makes it wider or narrower)
• If the task is XL, a spike is the recommendation — not a wide range
• If critical info is missing, state what you'd need to tighten the estimate
• Keep output skimmable — the person likely needs to paste this into Jira, Linear, or a client proposal