From pm-market-analysis
Use when Codex must analyze one prediction-market PM event for PMKNB: ingest subject/world research and market data, identify exact Polymarket or Kalshi instruments, assess market forces, resolution/oracle risk, liquidity, and platform/counterparty risk, then output a forecast, report, brief, proposal, or no-publish result. Triggers include prediction market, Polymarket, Kalshi, PM event, instrument identity, conditionId, token IDs, event_ticker, market ticker, YES/NO, PMKNB market_analysis, resolution risk, negative risk, or multi-market event analysis.
How this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/pm-market-analysis:pm-market-analysisThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
Analyze one PM event for PMKNB and produce a concise, evidence-first package. A PM event may contain multiple child markets, but the analysis must center on one event identity and output exact PMKNB instruments.
Analyze one PM event for PMKNB and produce a concise, evidence-first package. A PM event may contain multiple child markets, but the analysis must center on one event identity and output exact PMKNB instruments.
Use PMKNB terms: situation, source, claim, instrument, forecast, position, report, brief, proposal, run_trace, and PM event.
Use instrument, not contract. Use PM event, not venue event. Do not use memo as a product term for this skill.
Use these as the core trader-facing lens. Keep them practical and human-readable; do not turn them into wallet, API, or execution-system details unless the user is explicitly building execution infrastructure.
Load references/pm-market-analysis-reference.md before producing any publishable package.
Also load it whenever the task involves:
pm_market_analysis.v1 output or PMKNB write matrix.Frame the situation.
Verify instrument identity.
proposal or no_publish.Ingest evidence before conclusions.
Analyze market forces.
Assess resolution/oracle risk.
report, brief, proposal, or no_publish over forecast.Assess liquidity and microstructure.
Assess platform/counterparty risk.
Handle multi-market and negative risk.
Choose the product.
forecast: immutable thesis revision for exact verified instruments.report: evidence-led analysis without a new immutable forecast.brief: short operational/context package.proposal: recommendation to create/update PMKNB records, instruments, or analysis tasks.no_publish: required when identity, rules, sources, or validation gates fail badly enough that the package would mislead.Emit the PMKNB package.
pm_market_analysis.v1 when structured output is requested.run_trace.Produce a forecast only when exact instrument identity, resolution rules, source basis, and minimum evidence gates pass.
Produce a report when analysis is useful but forecast conditions are not met.
Produce a brief when the user needs compact situation/source/claim/instrument context.
Produce a proposal when the main output is a recommended PMKNB action, record, or next research task.
Produce no_publish when the package could misidentify the instrument, misstate rules, collapse non-equivalent markets, or present action guidance.
When working inside a PMKNB runner mode, respect runner-owned writes: inner agents should produce the requested output or apply batch for the runner rather than directly committing KNB changes.
When this skill is used from a PMKNB workflow runner:
no_publish; do not forecast.market_provider_unavailable; do not fabricate price, liquidity, settlement status, or market freshness.supersedes rather than mutating the old one.memo as a product term.knb apply or knb add from inside the analysis.schema: pm_market_analysis.v1
product: forecast | report | brief | proposal | no_publish
pm_event:
title:
venue:
event_identity_status:
instruments:
- venue:
identity:
outcome:
evidence:
sources: []
claims: []
market_snapshot: {}
analysis:
market_forces: {}
resolution_oracle_risk: {}
liquidity_microstructure: {}
platform_counterparty_risk: {}
conclusion:
probability_world:
probability_resolution:
confidence:
actionability:
product_rationale:
validation:
gates_passed: []
gates_failed: []
pmknb_write_matrix: []
run_trace: {}
Do not produce:
When uncertain, preserve PMKNB integrity over completeness: mark uncertainty, fail the relevant gate, and choose report, proposal, or no_publish instead of forcing a forecast.
Searches MemPalace before answering questions about past work, people, projects, or prior decisions. Returns verbatim stored content instead of guessing from model memory.
Guides Payload CMS config (payload.config.ts), collections, fields, hooks, access control, APIs. Debugs validation errors, security, relationships, queries, transactions, hook behavior.
Implements vector databases with Pinecone, Weaviate, Qdrant, Milvus, pgvector for semantic search, RAG, recommendations, and similarity systems. Optimizes embeddings, indexing, and hybrid search.
npx claudepluginhub ratacat/ratacats-skills --plugin pm-market-analysis