From thinking-frameworks-skills
Sizes and sequences initiative bets across H1/H2/H3 time horizons with risk profiles (core/adjacent/transformational) and exit/scale criteria for resource allocation.
How this skill is triggered — by the user, by Claude, or both
Slash command
/thinking-frameworks-skills:portfolio-roadmapping-betsThe summary Claude sees in its skill listing — used to decide when to auto-load this skill
**When NOT to use:** Single initiative with clear priority (use one-pager-prd or project-risk-register instead), purely operational prioritization without strategic horizons (use prioritization-effort-impact), or no resource constraints or trade-offs.
When NOT to use: Single initiative with clear priority (use one-pager-prd or project-risk-register instead), purely operational prioritization without strategic horizons (use prioritization-effort-impact), or no resource constraints or trade-offs.
Copy this checklist and track your progress:
Portfolio Roadmapping Bets Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Define portfolio theme and constraints
- [ ] Step 2: Inventory and size all bets
- [ ] Step 3: Sequence bets across horizons
- [ ] Step 4: Set exit and scale criteria
- [ ] Step 5: Balance and validate portfolio
Step 1: Define portfolio theme and constraints
Clarify the strategic theme (north star), time horizons (H1/H2/H3 definitions), resource constraints (budget, people, time), and portfolio balance targets (e.g., 70/20/10 rule). See Portfolio Theme & Constraints for guidance.
Step 2: Inventory and size all bets
List all candidate initiatives, size each by effort (S/M/L/XL) and impact potential (1x/3x/10x), categorize by type (core/adjacent/transformational), and identify dependencies. For simple cases use resources/template.md. For complex cases with 15+ bets or multiple themes, study resources/methodology.md.
Step 3: Sequence bets across horizons
Assign each bet to H1 (now), H2 (next), or H3 (later) based on dependencies, strategic timing, learning sequencing, and capacity constraints. See Sequencing & Dependencies for sequencing heuristics.
Step 4: Set exit and scale criteria
For each bet, define what success looks like (scale criteria: double down, expand scope) and what failure looks like (exit criteria: kill, deprioritize, pivot). See Exit & Scale Criteria for examples.
Step 5: Balance and validate portfolio
Check portfolio balance (are we too conservative or too aggressive?), validate resource feasibility (can we actually staff this?), and self-assess using resources/evaluators/rubric_portfolio_roadmapping_bets.json. Minimum standard: ≥3.5 average score. See Portfolio Balance Checks.
Product Portfolio (multiple features/products):
Technology Portfolio (platform, infrastructure, tech debt):
Innovation Portfolio (R&D, experiments, ventures):
Marketing Portfolio (campaigns, channels, experiments):
Small Bets (1-2 weeks, 1-2 people):
Medium Bets (1-3 months, 3-5 people):
Large Bets (3-6 months, 5-10 people):
X-Large Bets (6-12+ months, 10+ people):
Core Bets (Low Risk, Incremental Return):
Adjacent Bets (Medium Risk, Substantial Return):
Transformational Bets (High Risk, Breakthrough Return):
Define the strategic anchor for your portfolio:
Theme: The overarching goal (e.g., "Grow enterprise revenue 3x", "Achieve platform parity", "Launch in APAC")
Time Horizons:
Resource Constraints:
Portfolio Balance Targets:
Types: Technical (infrastructure), Learning (insights), Strategic (validation), Resource (capacity)
Heuristics: Dependencies first, learn before scaling, quick wins early, long bets start early, hedge portfolio
Exit (kill): Time-based ("90 days"), Metric ("<5% adoption"), Cost (">$X"), Strategic ("market shifts") Scale (double-down): Adoption (">20%"), Engagement (">3x baseline"), Revenue (">1.5x target"), Efficiency ("<$X CAC")
Example: AI chatbot bet | Exit: Deflection <30% after 60d OR sentiment <-20% | Scale: Deflection >50% AND sentiment >70%
Risk: ✓ ~70% core, ~20% adjacent, ~10% transformational | ❌ >80% core (too safe) or >30% transformational (too risky) Horizon: ✓ ~50-60% H1, ~25-30% H2, ~15-20% H3 | ❌ >70% H1 (no future) or >40% H3 (no near-term) Capacity: Effort ≤ capacity × 0.8 (20% slack) | Example: 10 eng → 48 EM/6mo → max 38 EM in H1 Impact: Portfolio ladders to theme (risk-adjusted) | Example: "3x revenue" → bets sum to 4.7x potential → 50% fail = 2.35x expected → add more bets
Problem Framing:
Bet Sizing:
Sequencing:
Exit & Scale Criteria:
Portfolio Balance:
Resources:
Success Criteria:
Common Mistakes:
npx claudepluginhub lyndonkl/claude --plugin thinking-frameworks-skillsBuild a product roadmap with sequenced bets and explicit tradeoffs. Use when asked to "build a roadmap", "prioritize the backlog strategically", "what do we build next quarter", "sequence our bets", "what should we focus on", or "product strategy for the next N months".
Builds product roadmaps sequencing strategic bets with explicit tradeoffs using Rumelt kernel. For roadmap requests, strategic backlog prioritization, quarterly planning, or product strategy.
Guides product managers through strategic roadmap planning: prioritization, epic definition, stakeholder alignment, and release sequencing. Use to turn strategy into an actionable release plan.