market-sizing

Market Sizing Report Generator

Voice

Read and embody: reference/voice/scout-persona.md

Purpose

Provides structured templates and calculation frameworks for market sizing analysis. Outputs standardized TAM/SAM/SOM reports with methodology documentation, assumptions, and market opportunity assessments.

Pairs Well With

• research-lead - For research methodology, data source validation, and analytical rigor
• product-manager - For market selection decisions and go-to-market strategy

When This Skill Activates

• User requests "market sizing" or "TAM SAM SOM analysis"
• Calculating total addressable market (TAM)
• Estimating serviceable addressable market (SAM)
• Projecting serviceable obtainable market (SOM)
• Preparing market opportunity reports for executives or investors
• Building business case financial projections

Capabilities

Market Sizing Report Structure

Generates comprehensive market sizing reports with these sections:

1. Executive Summary - Market opportunity at a glance
2. Market Definition - Scope, boundaries, and segmentation
3. TAM Analysis - Total addressable market calculation
4. SAM Analysis - Serviceable addressable market refinement
5. SOM Projection - Serviceable obtainable market target
6. Methodology & Assumptions - How numbers were derived
7. Growth Projections - Market trends and future outlook
8. Strategic Implications - What the numbers mean for business

TAM/SAM/SOM Framework

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

• The total revenue opportunity if you achieved 100% market share
• Answers: "How big is the universe?"

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

• The portion of TAM you can realistically serve with your product/service
• Answers: "How much can we actually reach?"

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

• The realistic share you can capture in the near term (1-3 years)
• Answers: "What's our target?"

Calculation Methods

Top-Down Approach:

• Start with total market size from industry reports
• Apply filters and constraints to narrow down

Bottom-Up Approach:

• Start with unit economics and customer counts
• Build up from fundamental drivers

Value Theory Approach:

• Calculate value delivered to customers
• Estimate pricing based on value capture

Output Template

# Market Sizing Analysis: [Product/Market Name]

**Date:** [Date]
**Analyst:** [Name]
**Audience:** Executives, investors, product strategy team

---

## Executive Summary

**Market Opportunity:**
- **TAM:** $[X]B - [Brief description]
- **SAM:** $[X]M - [Brief description]
- **SOM (Year 1):** $[X]M - [Brief description]
- **SOM (Year 3):** $[X]M - [Brief description]

**Key Insights:**
- [Insight 1 - e.g., "Market growing at 25% CAGR"]
- [Insight 2 - e.g., "Underserved segment represents 40% of SAM"]
- [Insight 3 - e.g., "Early mover advantage window: 18-24 months"]

**Strategic Recommendation:**
[One paragraph on what this market sizing means for go/no-go decision]

---

## Market Definition

### Scope & Boundaries

**Market Category:** [e.g., "SaaS project management tools"]

**Geographic Scope:** [e.g., "North America initially, global expansion planned"]

**Customer Segments Included:**
- [Segment 1 - e.g., "Software development teams (5-50 people)"]
- [Segment 2]
- [Segment 3]

**Exclusions:**
- [What's explicitly not included and why]

### Market Segmentation

| Segment | Description | Size Estimate | Priority |
|---------|-------------|---------------|----------|
| [Segment A] | [Description] | [% of market] | High/Med/Low |
| [Segment B] | [Description] | [% of market] | High/Med/Low |
| [Segment C] | [Description] | [% of market] | High/Med/Low |

---

## TAM Analysis - Total Addressable Market

### Calculation Method: [Top-Down / Bottom-Up / Value Theory]

**Top-Down Calculation:**

Total Market Size (Industry) = $[X]B × Relevant Segment % = [X]% × Geographic Coverage = [X]% = TAM = $[X]B

**Bottom-Up Validation:**

Total Potential Customers = [X] companies/users × Average Annual Contract Value (ACV) = $[X] = TAM = $[X]B

### TAM Breakdown

| Market Component | Value | % of TAM | Notes |
|-----------------|-------|----------|-------|
| [Component 1] | $[X]B | [X]% | [Context] |
| [Component 2] | $[X]M | [X]% | [Context] |
| [Component 3] | $[X]M | [X]% | [Context] |
| **Total TAM** | **$[X]B** | **100%** | |

### Data Sources

- [Source 1 - e.g., "Gartner Market Analysis 2026"]
- [Source 2 - e.g., "CB Insights Funding Data"]
- [Source 3 - e.g., "Primary research survey (n=500)"]

---

## SAM Analysis - Serviceable Addressable Market

### Refinement Factors

**What reduces TAM to SAM:**

1. **Geographic Constraints**
   - TAM includes: [e.g., "Global market"]
   - We can serve: [e.g., "North America only in Year 1"]
   - Reduction: [X]%

2. **Product-Market Fit Constraints**
   - TAM includes: [e.g., "All company sizes"]
   - We target: [e.g., "Mid-market (50-500 employees)"]
   - Reduction: [X]%

3. **Distribution Constraints**
   - TAM includes: [e.g., "All channels"]
   - We can reach: [e.g., "Online/self-serve only"]
   - Reduction: [X]%

4. **Pricing/Budget Constraints**
   - TAM includes: [e.g., "All budget levels"]
   - We fit: [e.g., "$10K+ annual budgets"]
   - Reduction: [X]%

### SAM Calculation

TAM = $[X]B × Geographic Filter = [X]% × Target Segment Filter = [X]% × Distribution Channel Filter = [X]% × Budget/Pricing Filter = [X]% = SAM = $[X]M

### SAM Breakdown by Segment

| Segment | TAM Portion | Filters Applied | SAM | Priority |
|---------|-------------|-----------------|-----|----------|
| [Segment A] | $[X]M | [X]% reachable | $[X]M | High |
| [Segment B] | $[X]M | [X]% reachable | $[X]M | Medium |
| **Total** | **$[X]M** | | **$[X]M** | |

---

## SOM Projection - Serviceable Obtainable Market

### Realistic Market Capture

**What we can actually win in the near term:**

### Year 1 Projection

**Target Market Share:** [X]% of SAM

**Calculation:**

SAM = $[X]M × Year 1 Market Share Target = [X]% = Year 1 SOM = $[X]M

**Underlying Assumptions:**
- Customer acquisition: [X] customers in Year 1
- Average ACV: $[X]
- Sales efficiency: [X] months avg sales cycle

**Bottlenecks/Constraints:**
- [e.g., "Sales team capacity: 2 AEs can close ~50 deals/year"]
- [e.g., "Product readiness: MVP suitable for early adopters only"]

### Year 3 Projection

**Target Market Share:** [X]% of SAM

**Calculation:**

SAM (projected growth) = $[X]M × Year 3 Market Share Target = [X]% = Year 3 SOM = $[X]M

**Growth Assumptions:**
- Customer base: [X] customers by Year 3
- Average ACV growth: $[X] → $[X]
- Market share progression: [Y1: X%] → [Y2: X%] → [Y3: X%]

### SOM Sensitivity Analysis

| Scenario | Market Share | SOM (Year 3) | Probability |
|----------|--------------|--------------|-------------|
| Conservative | [X]% | $[X]M | [X]% |
| Base Case | [X]% | $[X]M | [X]% |
| Optimistic | [X]% | $[X]M | [X]% |

---

## Methodology & Assumptions

### Data Collection Methods

**Primary Research:**
- [Method 1 - e.g., "Customer interviews (n=50)"]
- [Method 2 - e.g., "Survey of target segment (n=500)"]

**Secondary Research:**
- [Source 1 - e.g., "Industry analyst reports (Gartner, Forrester)"]
- [Source 2 - e.g., "Competitor financial disclosures"]
- [Source 3 - e.g., "Government/trade association data"]

### Key Assumptions

**Market Assumptions:**
- Market growth rate: [X]% CAGR (source: [source])
- Customer budget allocation: [assumption]
- Competitive dynamics: [assumption]

**Product Assumptions:**
- Product-market fit: [assumption]
- Pricing strategy: [assumption]
- Distribution efficiency: [assumption]

**Business Assumptions:**
- Sales team ramp: [assumption]
- Customer acquisition cost (CAC): $[X]
- Customer lifetime value (LTV): $[X]
- LTV:CAC ratio: [X:1]

### Limitations & Caveats

- **Data gaps:** [What data was unavailable or estimated]
- **Market volatility:** [Factors that could change quickly]
- **Competitive response:** [How competitors might react]
- **Technology shifts:** [Potential disruptions]

---

## Growth Projections

### Market Trends

**Historical Growth:**
- [Time period]: Market grew from $[X] to $[X] ([X]% CAGR)

**Projected Growth:**
- Next 3 years: $[X] → $[X] ([X]% CAGR)
- Drivers: [Key growth drivers]

### Market Maturity

**Current Stage:** [Emerging / Growth / Mature / Declining]

**Indicators:**
- [Indicator 1 - e.g., "Funding activity increasing 40% YoY"]
- [Indicator 2 - e.g., "New entrants joining market quarterly"]
- [Indicator 3]

### Expansion Opportunities

**Adjacent Markets:**
- [Market 1]: Additional TAM of $[X]
- [Market 2]: Additional TAM of $[X]

**Geographic Expansion:**
- [Region 1]: Adds $[X] to SAM
- [Region 2]: Adds $[X] to SAM

---

## Strategic Implications

### Market Attractiveness

**Positives:**
- [e.g., "Large TAM ($XB) with high growth (X% CAGR)"]
- [e.g., "Underserved segment represents significant opportunity"]
- [e.g., "Early market stage allows for category definition"]

**Challenges:**
- [e.g., "Competitive landscape is crowded"]
- [e.g., "Customer acquisition costs are high"]
- [e.g., "Market education required"]

### Go-to-Market Implications

**Recommended Strategy:**
- **Initial Focus:** [Which segment of SAM to target first]
- **Expansion Path:** [How to grow from SOM to larger SAM capture]
- **Resource Requirements:** [What's needed to achieve SOM targets]

**Investment Requirements:**
- Sales/marketing: $[X] to achieve Year 1 SOM
- Product development: $[X] to serve SAM effectively
- Total capital: $[X] over [X] years

### Risk Assessment

| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|--------|------------|
| [Risk 1] | High/Med/Low | [Strategy] |
| [Risk 2] | High/Med/Low | [Strategy] |

---

## Appendix

### Calculation Details

**Detailed TAM Calculation:**

[Step-by-step breakdown of all calculations]

**Detailed SAM Calculation:**

[Step-by-step breakdown of all calculations]

**Detailed SOM Calculation:**

[Step-by-step breakdown of all calculations]

### Data Sources Bibliography

1. [Full citation]
2. [Full citation]
3. [Full citation]

### Competitive Benchmarks

| Competitor | Reported Revenue | Estimated Market Share | Customer Count |
|------------|------------------|------------------------|----------------|
| [Company A] | $[X]M | [X]% | [X] |
| [Company B] | $[X]M | [X]% | [X] |

---

**Last Updated:** [Date]
**Next Review:** [Recommended review date - typically quarterly]
**Version:** [Version number]

---

Workflows

Creating a Market Sizing Report

1. Define Market Scope

   • Identify product/service category
   • Set geographic boundaries
   • Define customer segments

2. Calculate TAM

   • Gather industry data (top-down)
   • Calculate from first principles (bottom-up)
   • Validate with multiple methods

3. Refine to SAM

   • Identify realistic constraints
   • Apply filters sequentially
   • Document each reduction

4. Project SOM

   • Estimate realistic market share
   • Account for sales/distribution capacity
   • Create sensitivity scenarios

5. Document Methodology

   • Record all data sources
   • List key assumptions
   • Note limitations and caveats

6. Generate Report

   • Use template above
   • Include executive summary
   • Add visual representations if helpful

7. Review & Validate

   • Sanity check: Does SOM seem achievable?
   • Compare to competitor performance
   • Validate with research-lead for methodology

Common Calculation Patterns

SaaS Business:

TAM = Total target companies × Average ACV
SAM = Companies matching ICP × Average ACV
SOM = Realistic customer acquisitions × Average ACV

Consumer Product:

TAM = Total addressable users × Average annual spend
SAM = Users in target demographics × Average annual spend
SOM = Realistic user acquisition × Average annual spend × Conversion rate

Usage-Based Pricing:

TAM = Total usage volume × Price per unit
SAM = Addressable usage volume × Price per unit
SOM = Realistic captured volume × Price per unit

---

Limitations

• Does NOT make strategic decisions about market entry (consult product-manager)
• Does NOT determine research methodology or data source validity (consult research-lead)
• Does NOT create financial models beyond market sizing (consult financial planning team)
• Provides calculation frameworks and templates, not market analysis expertise

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Output Locations

Save market sizing reports to:

• research/market-sizing/[market-name]-[date].md
• docs/business-case/market-analysis.md
• Or location specified by user

Include date in filename for version tracking.