Skill: Earnings Review

Skill: Earnings Review

Trigger Conditions

• Invoked via /earnings-review TICKER after a company has reported earnings
• Invoked when a binary event flag from the previous week's analysis has now resolved
• Requires: ticker symbol. The skill searches for the most recently reported results.
• Do NOT invoke before earnings have been reported — use earnings-preview skill instead
• Do NOT invoke more than 2 weeks after the report (data freshness degrades)

Data Source Priority

1. market-data connector (see .mcp.json)
2. No fallback — all actuals, guidance, and analyst reactions must be live-searched

Workflow Steps

Step 1 — Confirm Report and Pull Actuals

Search [TICKER] earnings results [most recent quarter]:

• Confirm report date and fiscal quarter
• EPS actual vs. consensus estimate → beat/miss by $X.XX (X%)
• Revenue actual vs. consensus estimate → beat/miss by $XM (X%)
• Key segment metrics (same ones monitored in Step 5 of earnings-preview)

Search [TICKER] Q[X] earnings key metrics:

• Pull the 3–5 metrics that the market focuses on for this sector
• Compare each actual vs. estimate or prior quarter

Step 2 — Guidance Analysis

Search [TICKER] guidance outlook [next quarter / full year]:

• Next quarter EPS guidance: raised / maintained / lowered vs. prior estimates
• Full-year guidance: raised / maintained / lowered / withdrawn
• Any new commentary on margins, capex, headcount, or strategic direction
• Management tone: confident / cautious / warning signs

Classify guidance as:

• Raised — above prior estimates
• Maintained — in line with estimates
• Lowered — below prior estimates
• Withdrawn — removed (significant uncertainty flag)

Step 3 — Market and Analyst Reaction

Search [TICKER] stock reaction earnings day:

• Day-of price reaction (+/- %)
• After-hours / pre-market reaction if applicable
• Volume vs. average (institutional conviction signal)

Search [TICKER] analyst upgrades downgrades earnings:

• Any rating changes (upgrades/downgrades) in the 48 hours post-report
• Price target revisions (raised / cut by how much)
• Key analyst commentary (1–2 notable quotes if available)

Step 4 — Thesis Impact Assessment

Based on Steps 1–3, evaluate the investment thesis:

Thesis Strengthened if:

• Beat on key metrics + raised guidance
• Management commentary reinforces the original thesis drivers
• Market reaction positive and sustained (not faded)

Thesis Neutral if:

• Mixed results (beat some, missed others)
• Guidance maintained but not raised
• Stock reaction modest or quickly reversed

Thesis Weakened if:

• Missed key metrics + guidance cut or withdrawn
• Management tone cautious or defensive
• Analyst downgrades or significant target cuts

For each thesis pillar identified when the position was entered (if known), assess whether it was confirmed or challenged.

Step 5 — Updated Fundamental Score

Assign an updated fundamental score (1–10) based on:

• Revised growth trajectory post-report
• New analyst consensus and price target
• Guidance quality
• Any new risks or opportunities surfaced

State explicitly: "Updated fundamental score: X.X/10 (was X.X/10 pre-earnings)"

Step 6 — Action Recommendation

Based on thesis impact and updated score, recommend:

HOLD — thesis intact, no change needed

• Set/update stop-loss based on post-earnings support levels

ADD — thesis strengthened, score improved

• Suggested allocation: $X = Y.XXX shares at current price
• Entry: market order or limit at $X if you want a pullback

TRIM — thesis weakened but not broken

• Suggested trim: X% of current position
• Rationale: lock some gains / reduce risk while maintaining exposure

EXIT — thesis broken

• Close position
• Rationale: specific reason thesis is no longer valid

Currency Rules

Show all prices, stop levels, and allocation changes in the stock's native trading currency.

Output Schema

## Earnings Review: [TICKER] — [Company Name]

**Reported:** [Date] | **Fiscal Quarter:** Q[X] [Year]
**Stock Reaction:** [+/-X%] on earnings day (Volume: [X]x average)

---

### Results vs. Estimates
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss | YoY |
|--------|--------|----------|-----------|-----|
| EPS | $X.XX | $X.XX | +$X.XX (+X%) | +X% |
| Revenue | $XB | $XB | +$XM (+X%) | +X% |
| [Key metric] | X | X | ✅/❌ | X% |

---

### Guidance
| Period | Metric | Guidance | vs. Prior Est. | Status |
|--------|--------|----------|----------------|--------|
| Q[X+1] | EPS | $X.XX–$X.XX | +X% | ✅ Raised |
| FY[Year] | Revenue | $XB–$XB | Maintained | — |

**Management Tone:** [Confident / Cautious / Warning]
Key commentary: "[1–2 sentence quote or summary]"

---

### Analyst Reactions (48h post-report)
| Analyst | Action | Old Target | New Target |
|---------|--------|------------|------------|
| [Firm] | Upgrade to Buy | $XX | $XX |
| [Firm] | Maintained | $XX | $XX (raised) |

---

### Thesis Impact: [✅ Strengthened / ➡️ Neutral / ⚠️ Weakened]

[2–3 sentences explaining why, referencing specific results vs. original thesis drivers]

**Updated Fundamental Score: X.X/10** (was X.X/10 pre-earnings)

---

### Action Recommendation: [HOLD / ADD / TRIM / EXIT]

[Specific action with dollar amounts, share counts, and rationale]

**Stop-Loss:** $XX.XX ([X%] below current, at [technical level])

**What to Monitor Next Quarter:**
- [Specific metric or milestone]
- [Specific metric or milestone]

Anti-Patterns

• Never assume the earnings results — always search for actuals
• Never conflate a positive stock reaction with a good report (stocks can rally on "less bad than feared")
• Never recommend ADD on a weakened thesis just because the stock pulled back
• Do not issue an EXIT recommendation based solely on a single quarter miss — evaluate whether the thesis is broken vs. just delayed
• Always update the fundamental score — do not leave it as the pre-earnings value

Verification Checklist

• Actual EPS and revenue found via search (not estimated)
• Guidance for next quarter or full year found
• Stock day-of reaction confirmed
• At least one analyst reaction (upgrade/downgrade/target change) searched
• Thesis impact classified as Strengthened / Neutral / Weakened with rationale
• Updated fundamental score stated explicitly
• Action recommendation is one of the four defined options with specific rationale