assumption-risk-ledger

Assumption Risk Ledger

Surface and prioritize the untested assumptions embedded in any product plan before development begins.

Required Inputs

Ask the user for these if not provided:

• Product brief, PRD, or concept description (even rough notes work)
• Stage (concept / discovery / pre-build / post-launch - affects which assumptions matter most)

Process

1. Read the provided brief, PRD, or concept description
2. Extract assumptions across four categories:
   • Desirability (do users want this?)
   • Feasibility (can we build it?)
   • Viability (will it sustain the business?)
   • Usability (can users actually use it?)
3. Score each assumption:
   • Confidence (1-5): How sure are we this is true?
   • Impact (1-5): How badly does the plan fail if this assumption is wrong?
   • Priority = Impact − Confidence (higher = test first)
4. Validate completeness - Ensure at least one assumption per category. If a category is empty, re-read the brief looking specifically for that type.
5. Output a ranked list with recommended validation methods

Output Structure

Assumption Map: [Feature/Product Name]

Assumption	Category	Confidence	Impact	Priority	Validation Method
[assumption]	[type]	[1-5]	[1-5]	[score]	[method]

Critical Assumptions (Impact 4+ and Confidence 2 or below)

[Flagged items with detailed validation recommendations]

Top 3 Assumptions to Validate First

[Detailed recommendations including specific research method, estimated effort, and what the result would change]