Cash Flow Stress

Cash Flow Stress

Stress-test cash flow for "$ARGUMENTS". Model adverse scenarios to understand liquidity risk, minimum cash requirements, and how long the business can survive under pressure.

Prerequisites

None — utility skill, run anytime. Works best when financial data exists in .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/.

Process

1. Gather context:

   • If prior phase artifacts exist, read them for cash flow baseline
   • Ask for current cash position and monthly burn rate
   • Identify known upcoming cash events (payroll, rent, debt payments, expected revenue)

2. Define stress scenarios:

   • Revenue shock: 30%, 50%, 80% revenue decline
   • Collection delay: customers pay 30, 60, 90 days late
   • Cost spike: unexpected expense increase (legal, infrastructure, emergency hire)
   • Combined stress: revenue decline + collection delay simultaneously
   • Black swan: complete revenue halt for 1-3 months

3. Model cash runway under each scenario:

   • Project weekly or monthly cash position
   • Identify the date cash reaches zero for each scenario
   • Calculate minimum cash balance reached
   • Determine how many months of runway exist

4. Identify liquidity levers:

   • What expenses can be cut and how quickly? (fixed vs variable)
   • What credit facilities or reserves are available?
   • What assets can be liquidated?
   • What revenue can be accelerated? (prepayment discounts, advance billing)
   • Estimate the cash impact and timing of each lever

5. Define the cash management playbook:

   • Set cash balance trigger levels (green/yellow/red zones)
   • Define actions at each trigger level
   • Identify the minimum viable cash balance

6. Write the artifact to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/cashflow-stress.md with sections:

   • Current Position — cash balance, burn rate, baseline runway
   • Stress Scenarios — projected cash under each adverse scenario
   • Runway Summary — months of runway per scenario
   • Liquidity Levers — available actions ranked by impact and speed
   • Cash Management Playbook — trigger levels and response actions
   • Minimum Cash Requirements — floor balance and rationale

Output

The cash flow stress test written to .metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/cashflow-stress.md. Present a summary highlighting:

• Current runway and burn rate
• Runway under worst-case stress
• Available liquidity levers
• Recommended minimum cash balance