detect-anomalies

Anomaly Detection

Detect anomalies in Axiom datasets by comparing recent patterns to historical baselines using statistical analysis.

Arguments

When invoked with a dataset name (e.g., /detect-anomalies logs), it's available as $ARGUMENTS.

Prerequisites

Statistical anomaly detection requires sufficient data:

• Minimum data points: Z-score and standard deviation need ≥30 samples per bucket for statistical significance
• Historical baseline: At least 24 hours of data for meaningful comparison (methods use 25h lookback)
• Consistent ingestion: Gaps in data collection will skew baselines

If these aren't met, results may be misleading. Consider using simpler threshold-based alerting instead.

Schema Discovery

Always verify field names first:

axiom query "['<dataset>'] | getschema" --start-time -1h

Anomaly Detection Methods

1. Volume Anomaly Detection

Compare recent volume to baseline:

Calculate baseline (past 24h excluding last hour):

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time between (ago(25h) .. ago(1h))
| summarize count() by bin(_time, 1h)
| summarize
    avg_hourly = avg(count_),
    stdev_hourly = stdev(count_)" --start-time -25h -f json

Check recent volume:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time >= ago(1h)
| summarize
    current_count = count(),
    current_hour = min(_time)" --start-time -1h -f json

Z-score calculation:

• z_score = (current - avg) / stdev
• |z_score| > 2 indicates anomaly

2. New Value Detection

Find values that appeared recently but weren't seen before:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time >= ago(1h)
| summarize by error_code
| join kind=leftanti (
    ['<dataset>']
    | where _time between (ago(25h) .. ago(1h))
    | summarize by error_code
  ) on error_code" --start-time -25h -f json

Replace error_code with any categorical field (service, endpoint, status).

3. Statistical Outliers

Find values outside normal distribution:

Calculate bounds:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time between (ago(25h) .. ago(1h))
| summarize
    avg_val = avg(duration),
    stdev_val = stdev(duration)
| extend
    lower_bound = avg_val - 3 * stdev_val,
    upper_bound = avg_val + 3 * stdev_val" --start-time -25h -f json

Find outliers:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time >= ago(1h)
| where duration < <lower_bound> or duration > <upper_bound>
| limit 100" --start-time -1h -f json

4. Rare Event Detection

Find infrequent occurrences:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time >= ago(1h)
| summarize count() by error_message
| where count_ == 1" --start-time -1h -f json

5. Error Rate Spike

Compare error rate to baseline:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time >= ago(6h)
| summarize
    total = count(),
    errors = countif(status >= 500)
  by bin(_time, 15m)
| extend error_rate = errors * 100.0 / total
| sort by _time asc" --start-time -6h -f json

6. Latency Degradation

Track percentile changes:

axiom query "['<dataset>']
| where _time >= ago(6h)
| summarize
    p50 = percentile(duration, 50),
    p95 = percentile(duration, 95),
    p99 = percentile(duration, 99)
  by bin(_time, 15m)
| sort by _time asc" --start-time -6h -f json

Anomaly Categories

Type	Detection Method	Indicates
Volume Spike	Z-score on count	Traffic surge, attack, incident
Volume Drop	Z-score on count	Outage, data collection issue
New Values	Left anti-join	New errors, new services
Statistical Outlier	3-sigma rule	Extreme performance issue
Rare Events	Count = 1	Unusual conditions
Error Spike	Error rate increase	Service degradation
Latency Spike	Percentile increase	Performance issue

Output Format

## Anomaly Report: <dataset>

### Summary
- Analysis period: <timeframe>
- Anomalies found: <count>

### Volume Anomalies
| Time | Count | Expected | Z-Score |
|------|-------|----------|---------|
| ... | ... | ... | ... |

### New Values
- Field: `error_code`
- New values: `TIMEOUT_ERROR`, `CONNECTION_REFUSED`

### Statistical Outliers
- Field: `duration`
- Outliers: <count> events above <threshold>

### Error Rate
- Baseline: X%
- Current: Y%
- Change: +Z%

### Recommendations
1. <Investigation action>
2. <Monitoring suggestion>

Investigation Priority

1. Assess impact - Is this affecting users?
2. Correlate timing - What changed when anomaly started?
3. Check related systems - Shared dependencies?
4. Verify data quality - Is it a real issue or data problem?

When NOT to Use

• Insufficient data: Z-score needs ≥30 data points; new datasets lack meaningful baselines
• Known thresholds: If you have specific SLOs (e.g., "p99 < 500ms"), use direct threshold queries
• Real-time alerting: Use Axiom Monitors for continuous anomaly detection, not ad-hoc analysis
• Single data point: Anomaly detection compares against distributions, not individual values

APL Reference

For query syntax, invoke the axiom-apl skill which provides anomaly detection patterns and function documentation.