opportunity-evaluation

Opportunity Evaluation Skill

Purpose

Provide structured frameworks for evaluating product opportunities from raw signals to prioritized initiatives.

Customer Problem Framework

5-Question Framework

1. What is the problem?

   • State the observable pain, not the assumed solution
   • Use specific language: "Users spend 47 minutes/week manually copying data between tools"
   • Not: "Users need better integration"

2. Who are we solving it for?

   • Specific persona with context
   • Their constraints, capabilities, environment
   • Segment size and accessibility

3. How does it impact strategy?

   • Connection to growth model (acquisition, activation, engagement, retention, monetization)
   • Connection to product vision
   • Connection to competitive positioning

4. How do we know this is a problem?

   • Data evidence (metrics, support tickets, usage patterns)
   • Qualitative evidence (user interviews, customer feedback)
   • Market evidence (competitor moves, industry trends)

5. Why do we think this is happening?

   • Root cause hypothesis (not symptom)
   • Contributing factors
   • What would need to change

Signal Types

Type	Starts With	Investigation Direction
User insight	What (observed behavior)	Validate: Is this a real problem? Find: Who, where, why
Data insight	Where (metric anomaly)	Investigate: What's causing it? Find: What, who, why
Competitive	External pressure	Assess: Is this relevant? Decide: React or ignore
Strategic	Business direction	Map: What customer problem aligns?

Business Context Evaluation

Three Dimensions

Monetization Potential:

• Direct revenue opportunity (new revenue, expansion, upsell)
• Indirect revenue (retention improvement, reduced CAC)
• Quantify with methodology, not just "high/medium/low"

Strategic Fit:

• Vision alignment (does this take us where we want to go?)
• Platform leverage (does this enable other products/features?)
• Defensibility (Hamilton 7 Powers: scale economies, switching costs, cornered resource, counter positioning, branding, network effects, process power)

Competitive Pressure:

• What are competitors doing in this space?
• Market timing (early, on-time, late)
• Risk of inaction

Prioritization

Impact Assessment

Factor	Question
Impact potential	How big is the expected return?
Time to return	How quickly will we see results?
Compounding vs linear	Does this enable future bets or is it one-time value?
Multi-outcome impact	Does it serve multiple business objectives?
Order of operations	Must this happen before other things can?

Differentiation Classification

Type	Definition	Implication
Differentiator	Unique advantage competitors don't have	Build and market aggressively
MMR	Minimum market requirement to compete	Must have but don't over-invest
Neutralizer	Catches up to competitor advantage	Build to parity, not beyond

Risk vs Impact Matrix

• High Risk, High Impact → Big Bets (invest if strategically important)
• Low Risk, High Impact → No Brainers (do these first)
• Low Risk, Low Impact → Quick Wins (fill in gaps)
• High Risk, Low Impact → Duds (avoid)

HMW Framing

Good HMW statements are:

• Specific enough to guide solution design
• Broad enough to allow creative solutions
• Focused on outcome, not implementation

Examples:

• Good: "How might we enable deskless workers to resolve IT issues without a desktop computer?"
• Too broad: "How might we improve the employee experience?"
• Too narrow: "How might we add a mobile app for factory workers?"