niopd-bs-market-opportunity

Market Opportunity Analysis Skill

This skill provides rigorous market sizing and opportunity analysis using the TAM/SAM/SOM framework to quantify addressable markets.

Theoretical Foundation

TAM/SAM/SOM Framework

pie title Market Sizing Framework
    "TAM (Total)" : 100
    "SAM (Serviceable)" : 30
    "SOM (Obtainable)" : 5

Metric	Definition	Question
TAM	Total Addressable Market	How big is the universe?
SAM	Serviceable Addressable Market	What can we reach?
SOM	Serviceable Obtainable Market	What can we realistically capture?

Sizing Approaches

1. Top-Down: Start with industry data, narrow down
2. Bottom-Up: Build from unit economics and segments
3. Value Theory: Calculate value created for customers

When to Use

• New product evaluation
• Investor presentations
• Market entry decisions
• Strategic planning
• Resource allocation

Instructions

Step 1: Configuration

1. Read .claude/AGENTS.md for preferences
2. Identify product/service to analyze
3. Define geographic and temporal scope

Step 2: Define Market Context

• What problem does the product solve?
• Who experiences this problem?
• What is the current spending in this area?

Step 3: Calculate TAM

Research total market size:

• Industry reports and analyst data
• Government statistics
• Trade association data
• Calculate: Total potential customers × Average spend

Step 4: Calculate SAM

Narrow to serviceable market:

• Geographic limitations
• Segment focus
• Distribution capabilities
• Technology requirements

Step 5: Calculate SOM

Estimate realistic capture:

• Competitive intensity
• Go-to-market capability
• Time horizon (1-3 years)
• Historical benchmarks

Step 6: Identify Market Gaps

Analyze opportunities:

• Underserved segments
• Unmet needs
• Competitive weaknesses
• Emerging trends

Step 7: Generate Report

File path: 01-sources/[YYYYMMDD]-market-opportunity-v0.md

Contents:

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Definition
3. TAM Analysis ($X, methodology)
4. SAM Analysis ($Y, rationale)
5. SOM Analysis ($Z, assumptions)
6. Market Dynamics
7. Competitive Landscape Summary
8. Key Opportunities
9. Risks and Limitations
10. Recommendations

Output Specifications

• File Naming: [YYYYMMDD]-market-opportunity-v0.md
• Location: 01-sources/
• Template: references/market-opportunity-template.md

Related Skills

• niopd-mr-competitor: Competitive analysis
• niopd-mr-segmentation: Market segments
• niopd-dt-scenarios: Future market scenarios
• niopd-st-canvas: Business model fit