sentinel

Generates a personal cognitive bias profile from the decision ledger. Analyzes patterns in calibration errors, retrospective assessments, and recurring bias flags to identify the user's most active blind spots. Output is a personal bias fingerprint that adjusts future triage weights — so Sentinel pre-loads the biases most relevant to THIS user, not just the generic decision-type defaults. Requires minimum 5 resolved decisions in the ledger.

Generate diverse perspectives BEFORE evaluating. Used when the user is stuck in a narrow frame. 5-7 perspectives from different stakeholders, timeframes, or value systems. Then optionally feeds into /sentinel.

Collective decision protocol. Generates individualized pre-meeting scoring sheets, structures the meeting agenda by divergence, and facilitates group discussion to surface unique information and prevent groupthink. This is NOT /sentinel run by multiple people — it is a fundamentally different protocol that treats group dynamics as the primary risk variable.

Post-decision hygiene. Called 3-6 months after a recorded decision to review outcomes while correcting for the biases that contaminate retrospective judgment: Hindsight Bias (92), Choice-Supportive Bias (91), Outcome Bias (14), Self-Serving Bias (28), and Rosy Retrospection (94). The protocol forces evaluation of decision QUALITY separately from outcome QUALITY — these are not the same thing, and conflating them degrades future judgment.

Challenge the question itself before answering it. Sometimes the problem isn't the answer - it's the question. Uses 6 reframing techniques to escape framing bias.

Tracks predictions and measures calibration over time. Based on Tetlock's superforecasting research. The ONLY way to improve judgment long-term is feedback on past predictions. Manages the decision ledger, calculates Brier scores, identifies patterns.

Pre-mortem and counter-argument generation. Imagines the plan has failed and works backward to identify failure modes. Based on Klein (2007) and Mitchell et al. (1989) — prospective hindsight increases risk identification in group settings. In solo use, the primary value is structural: it forces explicit failure-mode enumeration rather than relying on intuitive optimism. Also generates the steelman of the losing option. Activated on STANDARD and FULL protocols.

Structures collective decision-making to prevent group-specific biases. Addresses Shared Information Bias (66), Groupshift (71), Courtesy Bias (89), Bandwagon Effect (87), and Groupthink (15) — biases that emerge from group dynamics and cannot be corrected by individual analysis. Implements the two-phase independent-scoring protocol: collect individual MAP scores BEFORE group discussion, quantify noise, then structure the meeting by divergence rather than consensus. Activated by /sentinel-group or when triage detects group=true.

Checks the logical structure of arguments. Not bias detection - structural validity. Identifies hidden premises, false dilemmas, unsupported claims. Proposes logically valid reformulations.

Measures judgment variance for MAP scores or estimates. Use when 3+ scores or estimates need noise quantification. Activated on FULL protocol when options diverge by more than 2 MAP points, and for /sentinel-group.

Core decision analysis skill. Trigger whenever the user: describes a decision, choice, or dilemma in natural language ("I need to choose between...", "we're torn between...", "should we...", "I'm not sure whether to...", "help me decide"); faces a trade-off between options; asks to triage, structure, or analyse a decision; asks for noise audit, calibration check, or bias catalog lookup; uses phrases like "decision hygiene" or "triage this decision". Trigger proactively — do not wait for technical vocabulary. Also activates for: structured scoring of options, judgment variance measurement, prediction tracking, heuristic pattern queries.

Hiring and talent evaluation decision hygiene. Trigger when the user: is deciding whether to hire someone ("on hésite à recruter", "we're torn between candidates", "should we extend an offer", "help me evaluate this candidate"); is running or reviewing interviews; asks about interview bias, candidate scoring, or evaluation consistency; uses phrases like "hiring decision", "evaluate candidate", "recruitment", "talent evaluation", "interview calibration", or "finalist". Also activates for: structured candidate scoring, hiring noise audits, and committee calibration.

M&A and deal decision hygiene. Trigger when the user: is evaluating an acquisition, merger, or investment ("on a reçu une offre de rachat", "should we acquire this", "we received a term sheet", "help me evaluate this deal", "is this company worth buying"); is running due diligence; asks about deal valuation, integration risk, or investment committee preparation; uses phrases like "acquisition", "merger", "due diligence", "target evaluation", "investment committee", "IC memo", "LOI", "term sheet", "synergies", "valuation", "integration", or "deal". Also activates for M&A noise audits, legal DD review, and pre-mortem on integration plans.

Product and roadmap decision hygiene. Trigger when the user: is deciding what to build or prioritise ("on doit prioriser le backlog", "help me decide what to build next", "which features do we tackle first", "should we build or buy this"); is reviewing a product roadmap; asks about sprint planning, feature scoring, or backlog grooming; uses phrases like "product roadmap", "feature prioritization", "sprint planning", "backlog grooming", "build vs buy", "RICE", "MoSCoW". Also activates for: product noise audits, roadmap pre-mortem, sprint calibration, and feature scorecard generation.

Post-decision and retrospective hygiene. Trigger when the user: wants to understand why something succeeded or failed ("pourquoi notre lancement a-t-il raté", "why did the project fail", "what went wrong last quarter", "let's review what happened"); is running a post-mortem, retrospective, or after-action review; asks about lessons learned or debrief; uses phrases like "post-mortem", "postmortem", "retrospective", "retro", "what went wrong", "lessons learned", "debrief", "after-action", "review what happened", "why did it fail", or "why did it succeed". Also activates for: postmortem scorecards, retrospective bias audits (hindsight, outcome bias, self-serving bias).