crypto-risk

market-risk

A Claude Code plugin that fetches real-time risk levels for crypto and stock indices from CycleBottom.

What it does

Returns a normalized 0-1 risk metric based on logarithmic deviation from the 365-day moving average, adjusted for diminishing returns.

• Risk near 0 = historically cheap (accumulation zone)
• Risk near 1 = historically overvalued (distribution zone)

Supported assets

Asset Class	Assets	Data since
Crypto	BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, BNB, LINK	2010-2020
Indices	Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ	1927-1985

Install

/plugin install cyclebottom/risk-skill

Usage

/crypto-risk:market-risk

Or just ask naturally: "What's the BTC risk level?", "crypto risk", "is the S&P 500 overvalued?", "market temperature" — the skill auto-triggers.

Response example

Crypto:

BTC  — $67,326 | Risk: 0.176 (Low risk)           | MA365: $58,241 | Price/MA: 1.156x
ETH  — $2,056  | Risk: 0.313 (Moderate-low risk)   | MA365: $1,842  | Price/MA: 1.116x
SOL  — $135    | Risk: 0.421 (Moderate-low risk)   | MA365: $112    | Price/MA: 1.205x
ADA  — $0.72   | Risk: 0.385 (Moderate-low risk)   | MA365: $0.58   | Price/MA: 1.241x
BNB  — $612    | Risk: 0.502 (Neutral)             | MA365: $548    | Price/MA: 1.117x
LINK — $15.20  | Risk: 0.344 (Moderate-low risk)   | MA365: $12.80  | Price/MA: 1.188x

Indices:

DJIA    — 42,150 | Risk: 0.612 (Moderate-high risk) | MA365: 39,820 | Price/MA: 1.059x
S&P 500 — 5,680  | Risk: 0.598 (Moderate-high risk) | MA365: 5,320  | Price/MA: 1.068x
NASDAQ  — 17,850 | Risk: 0.571 (Moderate-high risk) | MA365: 16,540 | Price/MA: 1.079x

Risk scale

Range	Meaning
0.00 - 0.15	Extreme low risk — Strong accumulation zone
0.15 - 0.30	Low risk — Good accumulation opportunity
0.30 - 0.45	Moderate-low risk — Reasonable entry
0.45 - 0.55	Neutral — Fair value range
0.55 - 0.70	Moderate-high risk — Consider caution
0.70 - 0.85	High risk — Distribution zone
0.85 - 1.00	Extreme high risk — Historically overvalued

API

Endpoint	Assets
GET https://cyclebottom.com/api/risk/crypto	btc, eth, ada, sol, bnb, link
GET https://cyclebottom.com/api/risk/indices	djia, sp500, nasdaq

Each object returns price, risk, label, ma365, priceToMA, and date.

License

MIT