/SKILL

Hypothesis Generation

Generate and rigorously evaluate novel research hypotheses.

Process

Step 1 — Problem Framing

Clarify the research context:

• What phenomenon is being investigated?
• What is already known? (Ask the user to provide key papers or summarize the state of the field.)
• What surprising or unexplained observation prompted this inquiry?

Step 2 — Generate Candidate Hypotheses

Produce 3–5 distinct hypotheses. For each:

• State it as a precise, falsifiable claim.
• Identify the underlying mechanism or assumption.
• Describe a minimal experiment that would confirm or refute it.

Use diverse generation strategies:

• Analogy: Does a known mechanism from a related domain apply here?
• Inversion: What if the conventional assumption is reversed?
• Scaling: Does the behavior hold at different data/model scales?
• Ablation-driven: What specific component, if removed, would eliminate the effect?

Step 3 — Stress-Test Each Hypothesis

For each candidate, answer:

1. Falsifiability: Can this be proven false? If not, revise it.
2. Prior literature: Does any existing work already test this?
3. Confounds: What alternative explanations could produce the same observation?
4. Scope: Under what conditions does this hypothesis break down?
5. Cost to test: Estimate compute and data requirements.

Step 4 — Prioritize

Rank hypotheses by:

• Impact (if true, how much does it matter?)
• Testability (how quickly and cheaply can it be tested?)
• Novelty (how differentiated from existing work?)

Recommend the top hypothesis with a justification.

Step 5 — Refine

Take the top hypothesis and sharpen it into a paper-ready claim:

"We hypothesize that [specific mechanism] causes [observed phenomenon] in [specific setting], and that this can be demonstrated by [experiment]."

Output Format

Produce a markdown document with all five steps. Number each hypothesis. Use a comparison table in Step 4.